BirdAnalyst
Species · New Mexico · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Lesser Nighthawk Population Trend in New Mexico

All statesAerial insectivores

Lesser Nighthawk in New Mexico has risen sharply: up 74% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+74%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
22Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Lesser Nighthawk Trends in New MexicoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Lesser Nighthawk has risen sharply in New Mexico: up 74% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Lesser Nighthawk Population Forecast in New Mexico

If the recent trend holds, Lesser Nighthawk in New Mexico is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 1.8 (95% range 0.95–2.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±10.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-2%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.8Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.95–2.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±10.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Lesser Nighthawk in New Mexico is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 1.8 (95% range 0.95–2.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±10.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.80.862.7
20271.80.882.7
20281.80.902.7
20291.80.932.7
20301.80.952.8

Lesser Nighthawk Survey Routes in New Mexico

Routes recording Lesser Nighthawk in New Mexico.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Gage2320251968
Rodeo1920251976
Columbus1720251992
Hatchet Peak1220251992
Laborcita1020191992
Mesilla720001992
Laborcita 2320252024
Escondida320251998
Roswell220251971
Sunshine Wll220251992
Engle219891979
Floyd120192019
San Antonio119771974
Deming119741969
Jornada120231979
Lakewood120191988
Variadero120122012
Vicks Peak120252015
Bitter Lake120241994
Red Rock120251992
Queen120192019
Lake Valley119941989

Lesser Nighthawk Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.