BirdAnalyst
Species · Texas · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Lesser Nighthawk Population Trend in Texas

All statesAerial insectivores

Lesser Nighthawk in Texas has declined: down 30% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-30%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
96Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Lesser Nighthawk Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Lesser Nighthawk in Texas. See the full index history below.

Lesser Nighthawk Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Lesser Nighthawk in Texas is projected to rise about 36% by 2030 — from 0.85 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.2 (95% range 0.05–2.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±91.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+36%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.2Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.05–2.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±91.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Lesser Nighthawk in Texas is projected to rise about 36% by 2030 — from 0.85 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.2 (95% range 0.05–2.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±91.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.20.052.3
20271.20.052.3
20281.20.052.3
20291.20.052.3
20301.20.052.3

Lesser Nighthawk Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Lesser Nighthawk in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Pumpville3620252006
Catarina3420101970
Pecos2020172017
Coyanda Draw1920251994
Black Gap1520251988
Schroeder1419691969
Presidio1420252000
Encinal1320101969
Casa Piedra1220251986
Pedro Creek1120101996
Laredo1020231994
Mentone1020132008
Castolon820241994
Comstock720251967
Catarina 3720232019
Progreso620101995
Montell620121995
Kermit 2620182005
Rachal519961967
Kingsville519891967
Campbellton520181969
La Pryor520051969
El Sauz520231993
Devils R Cyn520232011
Quitman Cyn.520091999

Lesser Nighthawk Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.