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Species · Texas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Lesser Nighthawk Population Trend in Texas

All statesAerial insectivores

Lesser Nighthawk in Texas has edged down: down 24% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-24%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
94Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Lesser Nighthawk Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Lesser Nighthawk in Texas. See the full index history below.

Lesser Nighthawk Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Lesser Nighthawk in Texas is projected to rise about 224% by 2029 — from 0.36 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.2 (95% range 0.07–2.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±91.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+224%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.2Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.07–2.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±91.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Lesser Nighthawk in Texas is projected to rise about 224% by 2029 — from 0.36 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.2 (95% range 0.07–2.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±91.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.20.072.3
20261.20.072.3
20271.20.072.3
20281.20.072.3
20291.20.072.3

Lesser Nighthawk Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Lesser Nighthawk in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Catarina3420101970
Presidio2920232000
Pecos2020172017
Girvin1820171977
Coyanda Draw1720241994
Schroeder1419691969
Encinal1320101969
Casa Piedra1220231986
Pedro Creek1120101996
Laredo1020231994
Mentone1020132008
Castolon820241994
Catarina 3720232019
Progreso620101995
Montell620121995
Pumpville620242006
Kermit 2620182005
Rachal519961967
Kingsville519891967
Campbellton520181969
La Pryor520051969
Comstock520231967
Black Gap520231988
El Sauz520231993
Devils R Cyn520232011

Lesser Nighthawk Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.