BirdAnalyst
Species · Arizona · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Purple Martin Population Trend in Arizona

All statesAerial insectivores

Purple Martin in Arizona has surged: up 401% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+401%Since 1970
30Routes In State
56Years

Notable Purple Martin Trends in Arizona

long arc increasecomputed index

Purple Martin has surged in Arizona: up 401% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Purple Martin Population Forecast in Arizona

If the recent trend holds, Purple Martin in Arizona is projected to rise about 44% by 2029 — from 1.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.4 (95% range 0.00–3.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+44%Change by 2029
1.4Projected 2029 index
0.00–3.595% range
±28%Backtest error
19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20251.40.003.5
20261.40.003.5
20271.40.003.5
20281.40.003.5
20291.40.003.5

Purple Martin Survey Routes in Arizona

Routes recording Purple Martin in Arizona.
Alpine1620232017
Forest Lakes1420241992
Redington1420231993
Pinetop1320222014
Happy Jack1220241977
Sawmill1120141989
Tonto Vill.1120212001
Pomerene920241968
Lukeville719811975
Sprucedale620231992
Portal519791978
Sahuarita520231993
Organ Pipe419941990
Red Rock420011995
Prescott220121977
Hunt219761976
Aztec Peak219781978
Blue219891974
Patagonia219811981
Cutter 2220182015
Williams220192006
Cutter220002000
Flagstaff120222022
Mormon Lake119751975
Zeniff119721972

Purple Martin Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.