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Species · Texas · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Purple Martin Population Trend in Texas

All statesAerial insectivores

Purple Martin in Texas has edged up: up 12% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+12%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
185Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Purple Martin Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Purple Martin in Texas. See the full index history below.

Purple Martin Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Purple Martin in Texas is projected to rise about 34% by 2030 — from 5.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 7.5 (95% range 3.0–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±69.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+34%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
7.5Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.0–1295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±69.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Purple Martin in Texas is projected to rise about 34% by 2030 — from 5.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 7.5 (95% range 3.0–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±69.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20267.53.012
20277.53.012
20287.53.012
20297.53.012
20307.53.012

Purple Martin Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Purple Martin in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Henrietta5820221971
Duran5219991995
Chandler5120041970
Hobson4920251971
Loyola Beach3820091994
Indianola3620241974
Oyster Lake3620251995
Three Rivers3520251994
Bayside 33420252005
Oakwood3019951967
Weches3020251995
Muldoon2720251970
Crossroads2420251967
Schroeder2219971972
Katy2220251968
Morton2220251970
Town Bluff2120251967
Rhome2120251970
Decatur2120241995
Smyrna2020101995
Georgetown1919851969
Selden1920251974
Millett 21920242013
Lag Atascosa1820251992
Harper1820251969

Purple Martin Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.