BirdAnalyst
Species · Texas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Purple Martin Population Trend in Texas

All statesAerial insectivores

Purple Martin in Texas has held roughly steady: up 8% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+8%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
184Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Purple Martin Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Purple Martin in Texas. See the full index history below.

Purple Martin Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Purple Martin in Texas is projected to rise about 22% by 2029 — from 6.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 7.7 (95% range 3.1–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±78.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+22%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
7.7Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.1–1295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±78.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Purple Martin in Texas is projected to rise about 22% by 2029 — from 6.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 7.7 (95% range 3.1–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±78.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20257.73.112
20267.73.112
20277.73.112
20287.73.112
20297.73.112

Purple Martin Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Purple Martin in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
George West8020241967
Henrietta5820221971
Duran5219991995
Diboll5120241968
Chandler5120041970
Oyster Lake4820241995
Port Acres4020241994
Loyola Beach3820091994
Rhome3720241970
Lag Atascosa3620241992
Indianola3620241974
Yoakum3620241994
Hobson3120241971
Oakwood3019951967
Alexander St2820241995
Town Bluff2520101967
Schroeder2219971972
Dike2220241969
Decatur2120241995
Massey Lake2020241970
Morton2020241970
Weches2020241995
Smyrna2020101995
Georgetown1919851969
Fannin1920231998

Purple Martin Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.