BirdAnalyst
Species · Kansas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Purple Martin Population Trend in Kansas

All statesAerial insectivores

Purple Martin in Kansas has risen sharply: up 61% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+61%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
48Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Purple Martin Trends in KansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Purple Martin has risen sharply in Kansas: up 61% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Purple Martin Population Forecast in Kansas

If the recent trend holds, Purple Martin in Kansas is projected to fall about 34% by 2029 — from 2.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.8 (95% range 0.92–2.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26.7%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-34%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.8Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.92–2.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±26.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Purple Martin in Kansas is projected to fall about 34% by 2029 — from 2.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.8 (95% range 0.92–2.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26.7%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.70.862.6
20261.80.872.6
20271.80.892.7
20281.80.902.7
20291.80.922.7

Purple Martin Survey Routes in Kansas

Routes recording Purple Martin in Kansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Galesburg1820241969
Leoville1119701970
Le Loup920212000
Severance920242001
Humboldt820221968
Hays820082008
Bucyrus820242022
Trading Post820242000
Jamestown820182000
Solomon820191989
Barclay720241970
Ellinor720241967
Longton720211979
Gray520181967
Hollenberg420211980
Melrose320231967
Dover320221971
Hanover320231969
Missler319981975
Berwet320242000
Hodges320142009
Wellington220241968
Coats220221972
Olathe220211968
Chapman219751968

Purple Martin Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.