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Species · Kansas · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Purple Martin Population Trend in Kansas

All statesAerial insectivores

Purple Martin in Kansas has surged: up 87% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+87%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
49Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Purple Martin Trends in KansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Purple Martin has surged in Kansas: up 87% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Purple Martin Population Forecast in Kansas

If the recent trend holds, Purple Martin in Kansas is projected to fall about 26% by 2030 — from 2.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.9 (95% range 0.98–2.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33.1%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-26%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.9Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.98–2.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±33.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Purple Martin in Kansas is projected to fall about 26% by 2030 — from 2.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.9 (95% range 0.98–2.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33.1%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.80.922.7
20271.80.932.7
20281.90.952.8
20291.90.962.8
20301.90.982.8

Purple Martin Survey Routes in Kansas

Routes recording Purple Martin in Kansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Galesburg1720251969
Leoville1119701970
Severance1120252001
Berwet1020252000
Le Loup920212000
Humboldt820221968
Hays820082008
Bucyrus820242022
Trading Post820252000
Jamestown820182000
Longton720211979
Wellington620251968
Gray520181967
Olsburg520252002
Melrose320231967
Dover320221971
Ellinor320251967
Hanover320231969
Hollenberg320251980
Missler319981975
Hodges320142009
Coats220221972
Olathe220211968
Chapman219751968
Buckeye219691969

Purple Martin Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.