BirdAnalyst
Species · Ohio · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Purple Martin Population Trend in Ohio

All statesAerial insectivores

Purple Martin in Ohio has declined: down 29% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-29%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
81Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Purple Martin Trends in OhioNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Purple Martin in Ohio. See the full index history below.

Purple Martin Population Forecast in Ohio

If the recent trend holds, Purple Martin in Ohio is projected to fall about 32% by 2030 — from 6.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.2 (95% range 0.27–8.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±45.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-32%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.2Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.27–8.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±45.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Purple Martin in Ohio is projected to fall about 32% by 2030 — from 6.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.2 (95% range 0.27–8.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±45.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20264.20.318.2
20274.20.308.1
20284.20.298.1
20294.20.288.1
20304.20.278.1

Purple Martin Survey Routes in Ohio

Routes recording Purple Martin in Ohio.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Dresden4720251966
Fulton4520251966
Ash Ridge3020211992
Graytown2419841966
Kalida2420251967
Wilgus2020091996
Napoleon1720251966
Keene1520231992
New Dover1320221966
Cumberland1320171966
Vickery1320251996
Bloomville1220251992
Tar Hollow1220242004
Botkins1120191992
Kings Creek1120152007
Birmingham1120241988
West Elkton1020101992
W Carrollton1020151990
Lattasburg920251966
Meadowbrook820031966
Wilmington819961966
Marion 2820252025
Pittsfield720241992
Baxter Ridge720252009
Coal Run619921966

Purple Martin Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaoklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.