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Species · Arkansas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Purple Martin Population Trend in Arkansas

All statesAerial insectivores

Purple Martin in Arkansas has collapsed: down 78% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-78%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
57Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Purple Martin Trends in ArkansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Purple Martin has collapsed in Arkansas: down 78% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Purple Martin Population Forecast in Arkansas

If the recent trend holds, Purple Martin in Arkansas is projected to rise about 18% by 2029 — from 2.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.3 (95% range 0.00–8.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±165.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+18%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.3Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–8.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±165.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Purple Martin in Arkansas is projected to rise about 18% by 2029 — from 2.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.3 (95% range 0.00–8.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±165.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20254.00.009.0
20263.80.008.8
20273.70.008.7
20283.50.008.5
20293.30.008.3

Purple Martin Survey Routes in Arkansas

Routes recording Purple Martin in Arkansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Saffell3620191967
Massard2620211967
Farwell2620182010
Dell1620242017
England1620242010
Eudora1420161967
Centerton1220142010
Wilson1220241993
Ashdown1120211967
Whitton1119911968
Russell1120212010
Lockesburg1120152010
Zion1020241967
Springhill920222010
Havana820212010
Poyen720071967
Blakely719991969
Lurton720131970
Hope620211967
Crows619911967
Stephens620242010
Yellville520102010
Ravenden Springs520152010
Augusta 2520112002
Stark420231967

Purple Martin Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.