BirdAnalyst
Species · Florida · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Purple Martin Population Trend in Florida

All statesAerial insectivores

Purple Martin in Florida has edged down: down 19% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-19%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
117Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Purple Martin Trends in FloridaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Purple Martin in Florida. See the full index history below.

Purple Martin Population Forecast in Florida

If the recent trend holds, Purple Martin in Florida is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 5.1 (95% range 0.00–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-8%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.1Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±16.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Purple Martin in Florida is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 5.1 (95% range 0.00–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20265.60.0012
20275.50.0012
20285.30.0012
20295.20.0011
20305.10.0011

Purple Martin Survey Routes in Florida

Routes recording Purple Martin in Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Shawano 255220112004
Holey Land27420241987
New Hope5820112009
Shawano5220001987
Dowling Park3520251987
Oak Grove 23520252017
Romeo3320251966
Nobleton3220241989
Hilliard3020251966
Sandy3020151991
Blountstown2920251966
Aripeka2720251987
Micanopy2619911967
Doctors Inlet 22220152008
Seminole Hls2120001967
Dale Mabry2119881966
Broad Branch1920251967
Santa Rosa1720031987
Alligator Pt1720251987
Lovedale1420111987
Salvista1319791967
Blackwater1320251987
Laurel Hill1320252010
Ft Waltn Bch1220111966
Defuniak Spr1120221987

Purple Martin Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.