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Species · Florida · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Purple Martin Population Trend in Florida

All statesAerial insectivores

Purple Martin in Florida has held roughly steady: down 9% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-9%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
117Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Purple Martin Trends in FloridaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Purple Martin in Florida. See the full index history below.

Purple Martin Population Forecast in Florida

If the recent trend holds, Purple Martin in Florida is projected to fall about 40% by 2029 — from 8.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.2 (95% range 0.00–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-40%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.2Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±20.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Purple Martin in Florida is projected to fall about 40% by 2029 — from 8.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.2 (95% range 0.00–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20255.70.0012
20265.60.0012
20275.50.0012
20285.30.0012
20295.20.0012

Purple Martin Survey Routes in Florida

Routes recording Purple Martin in Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Shawano 255220112004
Holey Land27420241987
New Hope5820112009
Shawano5220001987
Nobleton3220241989
Sandy3020151991
Micanopy2619911967
Doctors Inlet 22220152008
Seminole Hls2120001967
Dale Mabry2119881966
Alligator Pt1820241987
Laurel Hill1820242010
Santa Rosa1720031987
Oak Grove 21620242017
Blountstown1420241966
Broad Branch1420241967
Lovedale1420111987
Salvista1319791967
Pinetta1320241987
Ft Waltn Bch1220111966
Romeo1120241966
Defuniak Spr1120221987
Kendall1119911987
Mt. Olive1020242002
Port St Joe920141967

Purple Martin Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.