BirdAnalyst
Species · Missouri · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Purple Martin Population Trend in Missouri

All statesAerial insectivores

Purple Martin in Missouri has surged: up 144% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+144%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
94Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Purple Martin Trends in MissouriNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Purple Martin has surged in Missouri: up 144% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Purple Martin Population Forecast in Missouri

If the recent trend holds, Purple Martin in Missouri is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 9.1 (95% range 5.4–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+0%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
9.1Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
5.4–1395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±12.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Purple Martin in Missouri is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 9.1 (95% range 5.4–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20268.85.112
20278.95.213
20289.05.313
20299.05.413
20309.15.413

Purple Martin Survey Routes in Missouri

Routes recording Purple Martin in Missouri.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Graniteville9120251982
Akers5820251967
Syracuse5820241969
Hayti3920212016
Cp Girardeau3420251967
Kearney2920251995
Washington2819771967
Auburn2820252014
Miller2320252014
New Hampton2020252015
Emden2020242017
Doe Run2020252015
Whitewater1920251996
Dover1920252013
Cole Camp1719901971
Sedalia1620251991
Danville1420251967
Kirksville1420251998
Mcfall1420252003
Kahoka21420242003
Trenton1320251972
Norborne1320232006
Blodgett1320252013
Palace1320252014
Union1319991990

Purple Martin Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.