BirdAnalyst
Species · Virginia · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Purple Martin Population Trend in Virginia

All statesAerial insectivores

Purple Martin in Virginia has fallen sharply: down 53% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-53%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
65Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Purple Martin Trends in VirginiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Purple Martin has fallen sharply in Virginia: down 53% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Purple Martin Population Forecast in Virginia

If the recent trend holds, Purple Martin in Virginia is projected to rise about 123% by 2030 — from 1.7 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.8 (95% range 1.7–5.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±115.7%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+123%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.8Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.7–5.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±115.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Purple Martin in Virginia is projected to rise about 123% by 2030 — from 1.7 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.8 (95% range 1.7–5.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±115.7%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.71.75.8
20273.81.75.8
20283.81.75.8
20293.81.75.8
20303.81.75.8

Purple Martin Survey Routes in Virginia

Routes recording Purple Martin in Virginia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Clinchport3419781970
Taylorstown1820101967
Chincoteag W1820241992
Pungo1820251975
Cornland1420141975
Colonial Pky1419921992
Ringgold1320251988
Mannboro920251968
Brodnax920251973
Newsoms820241978
Great Falls719761967
Concord720241981
White Stone720251966
Cape Charles620181995
Branchville620241979
Walkers620231992
Star Tannery519941981
Stanley520251968
Moran520122011
Finchley520212006
Blacksburg520161989
Waverly419871978
Church Road420191967
Surry420251977
Elamsville419851985

Purple Martin Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontwashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.