BirdAnalyst
Species · Nebraska · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Purple Martin Population Trend in Nebraska

All statesAerial insectivores

Purple Martin in Nebraska has held roughly steady: up 1% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+1%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
27Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Purple Martin Trends in NebraskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Purple Martin in Nebraska. See the full index history below.

Purple Martin Population Forecast in Nebraska

If the recent trend holds, Purple Martin in Nebraska is projected to fall about 72% by 2029 — from 0.29 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.08 (95% range 0.00–0.77). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±54.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-72%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.08Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.7795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±54.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Purple Martin in Nebraska is projected to fall about 72% by 2029 — from 0.29 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.08 (95% range 0.00–0.77). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±54.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.130.000.81
20260.120.000.80
20270.100.000.79
20280.090.000.78
20290.080.000.77

Purple Martin Survey Routes in Nebraska

Routes recording Purple Martin in Nebraska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Johnstown1120191978
Julian620241969
Sparta620191969
Eagle Creek519751975
Kearney420241973
Almeria419801980
Paxton319921989
Johnson220241968
Liberty219911967
Gretna220151972
Benkelman220222022
Belvidere120231967
Seward120081973
Kenesaw120081978
Sumner119671967
Bartley120041977
Stratton120192013
Irvington120161968
Richland120221971
Petersburg120151976
Thurston120092003
Winside119921983
Midway119891989
Table119801980
Liberty 3120242023

Purple Martin Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.