BirdAnalyst
Species · New York · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Purple Martin Population Trend in New York

All statesAerial insectivores

Purple Martin in New York has fallen sharply: down 66% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-66%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
66Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Purple Martin Trends in New YorkNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Purple Martin has fallen sharply in New York: down 66% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Purple Martin Population Forecast in New York

If the recent trend holds, Purple Martin in New York is projected to fall about 39% by 2030 — from 0.37 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.23 (95% range 0.00–0.80). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-39%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.23Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.8095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±21.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Purple Martin in New York is projected to fall about 39% by 2030 — from 0.37 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.23 (95% range 0.00–0.80). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.280.000.85
20270.270.000.84
20280.250.000.83
20290.240.000.81
20300.230.000.80

Purple Martin Survey Routes in New York

Routes recording Purple Martin in New York.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Randolph2420171968
East Java1419731971
West Seneca1219731967
Westhampton620051968
Duanesburg619891975
Nashville620181967
Watertown619871969
Highmarket619851978
S Vandalia619761966
Canadice L520251968
Sheridan520251966
Willsboro519801967
Philadelphia520121980
Oriskany Fls419671967
Mt Morris419791979
Cherry Hill419811966
Rifton319831968
Macdougall320251969
Centerville319911971
E Youngstown320191975
Pulaski319881971
Oneida319801977
Hope Falls319771968
Manorville219891966
Harris Hill220252022

Purple Martin Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.