BirdAnalyst
Species · New York · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Purple Martin Population Trend in New York

All statesAerial insectivores

Purple Martin in New York has fallen sharply: down 70% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-70%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
66Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Purple Martin Trends in New YorkNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Purple Martin has fallen sharply in New York: down 70% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Purple Martin Population Forecast in New York

If the recent trend holds, Purple Martin in New York is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.23 (95% range 0.00–0.81). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+2%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.23Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.8195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±26.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Purple Martin in New York is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.23 (95% range 0.00–0.81). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.290.000.87
20260.280.000.85
20270.260.000.84
20280.250.000.83
20290.230.000.81

Purple Martin Survey Routes in New York

Routes recording Purple Martin in New York.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Randolph2420171968
East Java1419731971
West Seneca1219731967
Macdougall820231969
Westhampton620051968
Duanesburg619891975
Nashville620181967
Watertown619871969
Highmarket619851978
Naples620241966
S Vandalia619761966
Willsboro519801967
Philadelphia520121980
Oriskany Fls419671967
Canadice L420241968
Mt Morris419791979
Cherry Hill419811966
Rifton319831968
Centerville319911971
E Youngstown320191975
Pulaski319881971
Oneida319801977
Hope Falls319771968
Manorville219891966
Branchport220192019

Purple Martin Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.