Species · New York · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024
Purple Martin Population Trend in New York
Purple Martin in New York has fallen sharply: down 70% on the route-weighted index since 1968.
-70%Since 1968
66Routes In State
58Years
Notable Purple Martin Trends in New York
long arc declinecomputed index
Purple Martin has fallen sharply in New York: down 70% on the route-weighted index since 1968.
Purple Martin Population Forecast in New York
If the recent trend holds, Purple Martin in New York is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.23 (95% range 0.00–0.81). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.
+2%Change by 2029
0.23Projected 2029 index
0.00–0.8195% range
±26.4%Backtest error
| Year | Projected index | 95% low | 95% high |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 0.29 | 0.00 | 0.87 |
| 2026 | 0.28 | 0.00 | 0.85 |
| 2027 | 0.26 | 0.00 | 0.84 |
| 2028 | 0.25 | 0.00 | 0.83 |
| 2029 | 0.23 | 0.00 | 0.81 |
Purple Martin Survey Routes in New York
| Randolph | 24 | 2017 | 1968 |
| East Java | 14 | 1973 | 1971 |
| West Seneca | 12 | 1973 | 1967 |
| Macdougall | 8 | 2023 | 1969 |
| Westhampton | 6 | 2005 | 1968 |
| Duanesburg | 6 | 1989 | 1975 |
| Nashville | 6 | 2018 | 1967 |
| Watertown | 6 | 1987 | 1969 |
| Highmarket | 6 | 1985 | 1978 |
| Naples | 6 | 2024 | 1966 |
| S Vandalia | 6 | 1976 | 1966 |
| Willsboro | 5 | 1980 | 1967 |
| Philadelphia | 5 | 2012 | 1980 |
| Oriskany Fls | 4 | 1967 | 1967 |
| Canadice L | 4 | 2024 | 1968 |
| Mt Morris | 4 | 1979 | 1979 |
| Cherry Hill | 4 | 1981 | 1966 |
| Rifton | 3 | 1983 | 1968 |
| Centerville | 3 | 1991 | 1971 |
| E Youngstown | 3 | 2019 | 1975 |
| Pulaski | 3 | 1988 | 1971 |
| Oneida | 3 | 1980 | 1977 |
| Hope Falls | 3 | 1977 | 1968 |
| Manorville | 2 | 1989 | 1966 |
| Branchport | 2 | 2019 | 2019 |
Purple Martin Population Trend in Other States
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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.