BirdAnalyst
Species · Oklahoma · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Purple Martin Population Trend in Oklahoma

All statesAerial insectivores

Purple Martin in Oklahoma has declined: down 31% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-31%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
58Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Purple Martin Trends in OklahomaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Purple Martin in Oklahoma. See the full index history below.

Purple Martin Population Forecast in Oklahoma

If the recent trend holds, Purple Martin in Oklahoma is projected to rise about 216% by 2029 — from 1.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.7 (95% range 1.0–8.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±248.9%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+216%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.7Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.0–8.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±248.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Purple Martin in Oklahoma is projected to rise about 216% by 2029 — from 1.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.7 (95% range 1.0–8.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±248.9%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20254.60.958.3
20264.70.968.3
20274.70.978.4
20284.70.998.4
20294.71.08.4

Purple Martin Survey Routes in Oklahoma

Routes recording Purple Martin in Oklahoma.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Verden4020151968
Indianola3220241974
Keetonville3220221993
Collinsville2720211967
Colcord2720221992
Phillips2620081968
Ardmore2220091967
Goodwater2020211992
Mcalester1519911967
Canadian1020171967
Hardesty1019721970
Baron920221967
Cashion820232005
Blanco720031974
Big Cedar620231967
Loco619841974
Welch620241967
Rosston619761968
Colony619951995
Wainwright620121992
Arapaho620071992
Choctaw520221970
Tatums520181992
Duncan420191990
Skiatook420191982

Purple Martin Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.