BirdAnalyst
Species · New Mexico · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Purple Martin Population Trend in New Mexico

All statesAerial insectivores

Purple Martin in New Mexico has fallen sharply: down 65% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-65%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
21Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
49YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Purple Martin Trends in New MexicoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Purple Martin has fallen sharply in New Mexico: down 65% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Purple Martin Population Forecast in New Mexico

If the recent trend holds, Purple Martin in New Mexico is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.21 (95% range 0.00–0.55). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±109.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+9%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.21Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.5595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±109.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Purple Martin in New Mexico is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.21 (95% range 0.00–0.55). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±109.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.220.000.56
20260.220.000.56
20270.220.000.56
20280.220.000.56
20290.210.000.55

Purple Martin Survey Routes in New Mexico

Routes recording Purple Martin in New Mexico.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Fence Lake320241975
Emory Pass320071993
Horse Mtn220111968
Dulce220242013
Cloudcroft220241987
Mt. Taylor 2220222014
Pinon220031997
Claunch 2220242013
Cebolla120151977
Ojo Sarco120132013
Pecos120142007
Horse Spgs120182008
Angel Fire 2120212011
Rodeo119841984
Magdalena120132013
Mcgaffey120231996
Mt. Taylor120101994
Gallinas120081994
Reserve120231993
Bluewater Lake120081999
Logan120172017

Purple Martin Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.