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Species · Mississippi · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Purple Martin Population Trend in Mississippi

All statesAerial insectivores

Purple Martin in Mississippi has fallen sharply: down 55% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-55%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
69Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Purple Martin Trends in MississippiNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Purple Martin has fallen sharply in Mississippi: down 55% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Purple Martin Population Forecast in Mississippi

If the recent trend holds, Purple Martin in Mississippi is projected to rise about 156% by 2029 — from 3.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 8.1 (95% range 0.00–18). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±153.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+156%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
8.1Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±153.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Purple Martin in Mississippi is projected to rise about 156% by 2029 — from 3.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 8.1 (95% range 0.00–18). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±153.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20258.60.0019
20268.50.0019
20278.40.0018
20288.20.0018
20298.10.0018

Purple Martin Survey Routes in Mississippi

Routes recording Purple Martin in Mississippi.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Okatibbee L.30420081995
Mt Carmel4420161974
Latimer 23420232021
Cybur3220191966
Fontainbleau3119781966
Lucien2720081967
Olive Branch 22720222017
Macon2420241966
Columbia2220181969
Poplarville1919781972
Benndale1920231974
Scooba1619821967
Tchula 31520211995
Olive Branch1420011969
Diberville1319871979
Fayette1220131966
Cockrum1220241967
Waynesboro1220101966
Isola1020221968
Necaise920221982
Amite River820122008
Lake720241966
Neely720121974
Trace Madison720162015
Lake Mary619891974

Purple Martin Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.