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Species · North Carolina · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Purple Martin Population Trend in North Carolina

All statesAerial insectivores

Purple Martin in North Carolina has edged down: down 15% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-15%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
96Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Purple Martin Trends in North CarolinaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Purple Martin in North Carolina. See the full index history below.

Purple Martin Population Forecast in North Carolina

If the recent trend holds, Purple Martin in North Carolina is projected to rise about 76% by 2029 — from 6.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 12 (95% range 6.8–17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±68.9%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+76%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
12Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
6.8–1795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±68.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Purple Martin in North Carolina is projected to rise about 76% by 2029 — from 6.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 12 (95% range 6.8–17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±68.9%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025116.616
2026126.616
2027126.716
2028126.817
2029126.817

Purple Martin Survey Routes in North Carolina

Routes recording Purple Martin in North Carolina.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Shallotte9419911966
Ernul6120092001
Jamesville5720241983
Jarvisburg4419991992
Arapahoe3619951966
Beargrass3519811966
Reelsboro3320191997
Genoa3120241990
Bethel2620242002
Merrimon2420231968
Kinston2420241966
Jordan2420221967
Mashoes2219821971
Speed2220241968
California2220131972
Montague2120241990
Pinetops2120242003
Belgrade2120192002
Wards Corner2020241966
Raeford2020241990
Jackson1920171995
California 21820242014
Cypress Cr1820221990
Oakboro1720241977
Jones Corner1720241994

Purple Martin Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.