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Species · North Carolina · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Purple Martin Population Trend in North Carolina

All statesAerial insectivores

Purple Martin in North Carolina has edged down: down 15% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-15%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
96Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Purple Martin Trends in North CarolinaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Purple Martin in North Carolina. See the full index history below.

Purple Martin Population Forecast in North Carolina

If the recent trend holds, Purple Martin in North Carolina is projected to rise about 54% by 2030 — from 7.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 11 (95% range 6.5–16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±74.5%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+54%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
11Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
6.5–1695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±74.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Purple Martin in North Carolina is projected to rise about 54% by 2030 — from 7.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 11 (95% range 6.5–16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±74.5%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026116.316
2027116.316
2028116.416
2029116.416
2030116.516

Purple Martin Survey Routes in North Carolina

Routes recording Purple Martin in North Carolina.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Shallotte9419911966
Jamesville8720251983
Ernul6120092001
Jarvisburg4419991992
Arapahoe3619951966
Beargrass3519811966
Reelsboro3320191997
Montague2820251990
Flay2820251990
Merrimon2420231968
Kinston2420241966
Mashoes2219821971
California2220131972
Oakboro2120251977
California 22120252014
Pinetops2120242003
Belgrade2120192002
Wards Corner2020241966
Jordan2020251967
Jackson1920171995
Jarvisburg 21920252000
Cypress Cr1820221990
Genoa1820251990
Myrtle Grove1720251966
Jonas Ridge1619711968

Purple Martin Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.