BirdAnalyst
Guild · Ohio · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Aerial Insectivores In Ohio

All statesOhio

17 species in this guild. As a group they are +15%Guild trendA mean-index aggregate across the species in this group — the structural direction of the guild, with individual-species noise smoothed out.Full methodology → since 1968.

Guild SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for aerial insectivores in Ohio. See the full index history below.

Aerial Insectivores In Ohio Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Aerial insectivores in Ohio is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 4.3 (95% range 3.5–5.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±6.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-4%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.3Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.5–5.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±6.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Aerial insectivores in Ohio is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 4.3 (95% range 3.5–5.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±6.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20254.23.55.0
20264.23.55.0
20274.23.55.0
20284.33.55.0
20294.33.55.0

Member Species In Ohio

Aerial insectivores species in Ohio.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
Alder FlycatcherTyrannidae-82%
Chimney SwiftApodidae-68%
Bank SwallowHirundinidae-68%
Least FlycatcherTyrannidae-67%
Common NighthawkCaprimulgidae-46%
Great Crested FlycatcherTyrannidae-29%
Purple MartinHirundinidae-27%
Eastern Whip-poor-willCaprimulgidae+13%
Eastern KingbirdTyrannidae+21%
Eastern PhoebeTyrannidae+29%
Willow FlycatcherTyrannidae+36%
Northern Rough-winged SwallowHirundinidae+42%
Barn SwallowHirundinidae+73%
Eastern Wood-PeweeTyrannidae+84%
Acadian FlycatcherTyrannidae+328%
Tree SwallowHirundinidae+552%
Cliff SwallowHirundinidae16×

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.