BirdAnalyst
Species · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Common Pauraque

CaprimulgidaeAerial insectivoresNyctidromus albicollis

Common Pauraque has declined: down 49% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-49%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
30RoutesSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
53Years SurveyedYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

About the Common Pauraque

The Common Pauraque (Nyctidromus albicollis) is a North American member of the Nightjars & Nighthawks (Caprimulgidae). In this analysis it is grouped with the aerial insectivores.

Size
7.5–12 in long (19–30 cm) — a cryptic, big-mouthed bird (typical for the family)
Habitat
Open airspace over fields, water and towns; nests in cavities, earthen banks or on structures.
Diet
Flying insects caught on the wing.
Range
Recorded on 30 Breeding Bird Survey routes across 1 state, most concentrated in the Tamaulipan Brushlands.
Family
Caprimulgidae · Aerial insectivores

Notable Common Pauraque TrendsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Common Pauraque. See the full index history below.

Common Pauraque Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Common Pauraque is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.01). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±167.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±167.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Common Pauraque is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.01). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±167.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.000.000.01
20260.000.000.01
20270.000.000.01
20280.000.000.01
20290.000.000.01

Where the Common Pauraque Is Detected

BBS routes recording Common Pauraque, sized by most recent count.

Common Pauraque Population Trend by State

Common Pauraque population trend by state.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Texas-61%196930

Common Pauraque Population Trend by Region

Bird Conservation Regions are the ecological unit for trends.

Common Pauraque population trend by Bird Conservation Region.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Oaks and Prairies+27%20064
Tamaulipan Brushlands-74%196921
Gulf Coastal Prairie-1%19855

Common Pauraque Conservation Status

Our route-weighted index shows it down about 49% since 1969. Aerial insectivores have fallen sharply across the continent, a decline widely linked to dwindling insect prey.

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22. Trend is a route-weighted relative-abundance index, not an absolute population.