BirdAnalyst
Species · Texas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Common Pauraque Population Trend in Texas

All statesAerial insectivores

Common Pauraque in Texas has fallen sharply: down 61% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-61%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
30Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
53YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Common Pauraque Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Common Pauraque has fallen sharply in Texas: down 61% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Common Pauraque Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Common Pauraque in Texas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.07 (95% range 0.00–0.14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±186.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.07Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±186.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Common Pauraque in Texas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.07 (95% range 0.00–0.14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±186.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.070.000.14
20260.070.000.14
20270.070.000.14
20280.070.000.14
20290.070.000.14

Common Pauraque Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Common Pauraque in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Laredo520042004
Kingsville320121977
Randado320141967
Mcfaddin320162011
Millett 2320172015
Three Rivers320241998
Agua Nueva220181970
Mirando City220192009
Encinal220101998
San Ygnacio219721967
Hobson220242011
Campbellton220192005
Catarina220091992
Sejita220241997
Raymondville219861973
San Pedro220181996
Lag Atascosa120231972
Rachal119961968
Zapata119781967
L. Atascosa Nwr120231999
George West120231972
Loyola Beach 2120212010
Cavasara Cr.120102010
Hondo120102010
Millett120102010

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.