BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 37 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Common Pauraque In Gulf Coastal Prairie

All regionsGulf Coastal PrairieAerial insectivores

Common Pauraque in Gulf Coastal Prairie has held roughly steady: down 1% on the route-weighted index since 1985.

-1%Since 1985TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
30YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Common Pauraque in Gulf Coastal Prairie. See the full index history below.

Common Pauraque In Gulf Coastal Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Common Pauraque in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to rise about 69% by 2028 — from 0.09 in 2023 to a central estimate of 0.15 (95% range 0.01–0.29). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±157.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+69%Change by 2028TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.15Projected 2028 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.01–0.2995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±157.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Common Pauraque in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to rise about 69% by 2028 — from 0.09 in 2023 to a central estimate of 0.15 (95% range 0.01–0.29). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±157.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19722028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20240.150.010.29
20250.150.010.29
20260.150.010.29
20270.150.010.29
20280.150.010.29

Routes In Gulf Coastal Prairie

Routes recording Common Pauraque in Gulf Coastal Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
McfaddinTEXAS32016
San PedroTEXAS22018
Lag AtascosaTEXAS12023
Loyola Beach 2TEXAS12021
L. Atascosa NwrTEXAS12023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.