BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 36 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Common Pauraque In Tamaulipan Brushlands

All regionsTamaulipan BrushlandsAerial insectivores

Common Pauraque in Tamaulipan Brushlands has fallen sharply: down 74% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-74%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
21Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
50YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Common Pauraque has fallen sharply in Tamaulipan Brushlands: down 74% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Common Pauraque In Tamaulipan Brushlands Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Common Pauraque in Tamaulipan Brushlands is projected to rise about 191% by 2029 — from 0.17 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.49 (95% range 0.00–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±164.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+191%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.49Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±164.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Common Pauraque in Tamaulipan Brushlands is projected to rise about 191% by 2029 — from 0.17 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.49 (95% range 0.00–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±164.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.480.001.1
20260.480.001.1
20270.480.001.1
20280.480.001.1
20290.490.001.1

Routes In Tamaulipan Brushlands

Routes recording Common Pauraque in Tamaulipan Brushlands.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
LaredoTEXAS52004
KingsvilleTEXAS32012
RandadoTEXAS32014
Millett 2TEXAS32017
Agua NuevaTEXAS22018
Mirando CityTEXAS22019
EncinalTEXAS22010
San YgnacioTEXAS21972
CatarinaTEXAS22009
RaymondvilleTEXAS21986
SejitaTEXAS22024
RachalTEXAS11996
ZapataTEXAS11978
George WestTEXAS12023
HondoTEXAS12010
El SauzTEXAS12012
Catarina 2TEXAS12017
GuerraTEXAS12010
Encinal 2TEXAS12018
MillettTEXAS12010
Cavasara Cr.TEXAS12010

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.