BirdAnalyst
Guild · Utah · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Aerial Insectivores In Utah

All statesUtah

22 species in this guild. As a group they are -30%Guild trendA mean-index aggregate across the species in this group — the structural direction of the guild, with individual-species noise smoothed out.Full methodology → since 1970.

Guild SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for aerial insectivores in Utah. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Aerial insectivores in Utah is projected to rise about 15% by 2029 — from 1.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.7 (95% range 0.17–3.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+15%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.7Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.17–3.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±22.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Aerial insectivores in Utah is projected to rise about 15% by 2029 — from 1.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.7 (95% range 0.17–3.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.80.293.3
20261.80.263.3
20271.80.233.3
20281.70.203.3
20291.70.173.2

Member Species In Utah

Aerial insectivores species in Utah.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
Bank SwallowHirundinidae-96%
Black PhoebeTyrannidae-90%
Tree SwallowHirundinidae-82%
Olive-sided FlycatcherTyrannidae-77%
White-throated SwiftApodidae-75%
Purple MartinHirundinidae-63%
Common NighthawkCaprimulgidae-36%
Gray FlycatcherTyrannidae-27%
Willow FlycatcherTyrannidae-22%
Common PoorwillCaprimulgidae-20%
Northern Rough-winged SwallowHirundinidae-7%
Eastern KingbirdTyrannidae+1%
Cassin's KingbirdTyrannidae+16%
Cliff SwallowHirundinidae+16%
Western Wood-PeweeTyrannidae+60%
Barn SwallowHirundinidae+72%
Violet-green SwallowHirundinidae+114%
Dusky FlycatcherTyrannidae+139%
Western KingbirdTyrannidae+228%
Hammond's FlycatcherTyrannidae+234%
Say's PhoebeTyrannidae+324%
Ash-throated FlycatcherTyrannidae+780%

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.