BirdAnalyst
Guild · Utah · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Aerial Insectivores In Utah

All statesUtah

22 species in this guild. As a group they are -30%Guild trendA mean-index aggregate across the species in this group — the structural direction of the guild, with individual-species noise smoothed out.Full methodology → since 1970.

Guild SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for aerial insectivores in Utah. See the full index history below.

Aerial Insectivores In Utah Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Aerial insectivores in Utah is projected to rise about 15% by 2029 — from 1.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.7 (95% range 0.17–3.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+15%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.7Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.17–3.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±22.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Aerial insectivores in Utah is projected to rise about 15% by 2029 — from 1.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.7 (95% range 0.17–3.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.80.293.3
20261.80.263.3
20271.80.233.3
20281.70.203.3
20291.70.173.2

Member Species In Utah

Aerial insectivores species in Utah.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
Bank SwallowHirundinidae-96%
Black PhoebeTyrannidae-90%
Tree SwallowHirundinidae-82%
Olive-sided FlycatcherTyrannidae-77%
White-throated SwiftApodidae-75%
Purple MartinHirundinidae-63%
Common NighthawkCaprimulgidae-36%
Gray FlycatcherTyrannidae-27%
Willow FlycatcherTyrannidae-22%
Common PoorwillCaprimulgidae-20%
Northern Rough-winged SwallowHirundinidae-7%
Eastern KingbirdTyrannidae+1%
Cassin's KingbirdTyrannidae+16%
Cliff SwallowHirundinidae+16%
Western Wood-PeweeTyrannidae+60%
Barn SwallowHirundinidae+72%
Violet-green SwallowHirundinidae+114%
Dusky FlycatcherTyrannidae+139%
Western KingbirdTyrannidae+228%
Hammond's FlycatcherTyrannidae+234%
Say's PhoebeTyrannidae+324%
Ash-throated FlycatcherTyrannidae+780%

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.