BirdAnalyst
Guild · Mississippi · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Aerial Insectivores In Mississippi

All statesMississippi

14 species in this guild. As a group they are +39%Guild trendA mean-index aggregate across the species in this group — the structural direction of the guild, with individual-species noise smoothed out.Full methodology → since 1968.

Guild SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for aerial insectivores in Mississippi. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Aerial insectivores in Mississippi is projected to fall about 39% by 2029 — from 10.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 6.1 (95% range 4.2–7.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-39%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6.1Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.2–7.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±13.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Aerial insectivores in Mississippi is projected to fall about 39% by 2029 — from 10.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 6.1 (95% range 4.2–7.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20256.04.17.9
20266.04.27.9
20276.04.27.9
20286.14.27.9
20296.14.27.9

Member Species In Mississippi

Aerial insectivores species in Mississippi.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
Common NighthawkCaprimulgidae-94%
Chuck-will's-widowCaprimulgidae-82%
Chimney SwiftApodidae-77%
Eastern KingbirdTyrannidae-73%
Purple MartinHirundinidae-55%
Eastern Whip-poor-willCaprimulgidae-41%
Barn SwallowHirundinidae+76%
Eastern Wood-PeweeTyrannidae+135%
Great Crested FlycatcherTyrannidae+137%
Tree SwallowHirundinidae+315%
Eastern PhoebeTyrannidae+432%
Acadian FlycatcherTyrannidae19×
Northern Rough-winged SwallowHirundinidae39×
Cliff SwallowHirundinidae41×

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.