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Species · BCR 25 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Great Crested Flycatcher In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

All regionsWest Gulf Coastal Plain / OuachitasAerial insectivores

Great Crested Flycatcher in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas has declined: down 30% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-30%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
109Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Great Crested Flycatcher in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas. See the full index history below.

Great Crested Flycatcher In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Great Crested Flycatcher in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to fall about 17% by 2029 — from 4.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.3 (95% range 1.3–5.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-17%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.3Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.3–5.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±16.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great Crested Flycatcher in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to fall about 17% by 2029 — from 4.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.3 (95% range 1.3–5.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.61.55.6
20263.51.45.6
20273.41.45.5
20283.41.35.4
20293.31.35.4

Routes In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

Routes recording Great Crested Flycatcher in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
PushmatahaOKLAHOMA212023
HavanaARKANSAS172021
ChandlerTEXAS142003
Locust BayouARKANSAS122023
Poyen 2ARKANSAS122024
Mount UnionLOUISIANA122024
HopeARKANSAS112024
BlancoOKLAHOMA112016
BlakelyARKANSAS101999
DerryLOUISIANA101989
Fort PolkLOUISIANA101975
De QuincyLOUISIANA102021
LinvilleLOUISIANA102024
CaledoniaTEXAS102024
AthensTEXAS102024
IvanLOUISIANA92013
Pine PrairieLOUISIANA91997
LivingstonTEXAS92024
Neches BithTEXAS92017
Old MiloARKANSAS82024
TroutLOUISIANA82023
ManyLOUISIANA81992
OakdaleLOUISIANA81994
CheniereLOUISIANA82024
EnterpriseLOUISIANA82023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.