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Species · BCR 25 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Great Crested Flycatcher In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

All regionsWest Gulf Coastal Plain / OuachitasAerial insectivores

Great Crested Flycatcher in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas has edged down: down 19% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-19%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
109Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Great Crested Flycatcher in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas. See the full index history below.

Great Crested Flycatcher In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Great Crested Flycatcher in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to fall about 33% by 2030 — from 5.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.4 (95% range 1.3–5.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-33%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.4Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.3–5.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±21%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great Crested Flycatcher in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to fall about 33% by 2030 — from 5.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.4 (95% range 1.3–5.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.61.55.7
20273.51.55.6
20283.51.45.6
20293.41.45.5
20303.41.35.5

Routes In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

Routes recording Great Crested Flycatcher in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
PushmatahaOKLAHOMA212023
HavanaARKANSAS172021
Mount UnionLOUISIANA142025
PhillipsOKLAHOMA142025
ChandlerTEXAS142003
Poyen 2ARKANSAS132025
Locust BayouARKANSAS122023
HopeARKANSAS112025
BlancoOKLAHOMA112016
Alexander StTEXAS112025
Old MiloARKANSAS102025
BlakelyARKANSAS101999
DerryLOUISIANA101989
Fort PolkLOUISIANA101975
De QuincyLOUISIANA102021
Flat CreekLOUISIANA102025
IvanLOUISIANA92013
Pine PrairieLOUISIANA91997
DibollTEXAS92025
Neches BithTEXAS92017
ManyLOUISIANA81992
WomackLOUISIANA82025
OakdaleLOUISIANA81994
GoodwaterOKLAHOMA82021
SandbluffOKLAHOMA82025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.