BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 31 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Great Crested Flycatcher In Peninsular Florida

All regionsPeninsular FloridaAerial insectivores

Great Crested Flycatcher in Peninsular Florida has risen sharply: up 58% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+58%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
78Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Great Crested Flycatcher has risen sharply in Peninsular Florida: up 58% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Great Crested Flycatcher In Peninsular Florida Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Great Crested Flycatcher in Peninsular Florida is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 14 (95% range 11–18). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-0%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
14Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
11–1895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±15.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great Crested Flycatcher in Peninsular Florida is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 14 (95% range 11–18). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026141018
2027141118
2028141118
2029141118
2030141118

Routes In Peninsular Florida

Routes recording Great Crested Flycatcher in Peninsular Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
CitrusFLORIDA562025
PinecrestFLORIDA352025
MicanopyFLORIDA341991
OcalaFLORIDA282025
GoetheFLORIDA272025
MabelFLORIDA262011
Indiantown 2FLORIDA262025
Ft MccoyFLORIDA242025
Mt. OliveFLORIDA242025
RomeoFLORIDA212025
BelmoreFLORIDA212024
ChildsFLORIDA202022
Dupuis W.E.AFLORIDA202025
GardnerFLORIDA191999
Green SwampFLORIDA182025
St AugustineFLORIDA162025
San AntonioFLORIDA162025
Babcock RnchFLORIDA161990
Polk CityFLORIDA152025
KenansvilleFLORIDA152025
CrewsvilleFLORIDA152025
Ft LonesomeFLORIDA142025
PinelandsFLORIDA142024
WebbFLORIDA132025
Winter GardnFLORIDA122019

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.