BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 31 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Great Crested Flycatcher In Peninsular Florida

All regionsPeninsular FloridaAerial insectivores

Great Crested Flycatcher in Peninsular Florida has increased: up 45% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+45%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
78Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Great Crested Flycatcher in Peninsular Florida. See the full index history below.

Great Crested Flycatcher In Peninsular Florida Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Great Crested Flycatcher in Peninsular Florida is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 14 (95% range 11–18). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-3%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
14Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
11–1895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±16.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great Crested Flycatcher in Peninsular Florida is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 14 (95% range 11–18). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025141018
2026141018
2027141118
2028141118
2029141118

Routes In Peninsular Florida

Routes recording Great Crested Flycatcher in Peninsular Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
CitrusFLORIDA482024
Mt. OliveFLORIDA402024
OcalaFLORIDA352024
MicanopyFLORIDA341991
PinecrestFLORIDA302024
MabelFLORIDA262011
KenansvilleFLORIDA222024
GoetheFLORIDA222024
Dupuis W.E.AFLORIDA222024
RomeoFLORIDA212024
BelmoreFLORIDA212024
CroomFLORIDA212024
ChildsFLORIDA202022
Ft LonesomeFLORIDA202024
WebbFLORIDA202024
GardnerFLORIDA191999
ChassahowitzFLORIDA192024
Babcock RnchFLORIDA161990
San AntonioFLORIDA142024
Devils GardnFLORIDA142024
CrewsvilleFLORIDA142024
Green SwampFLORIDA142024
PinelandsFLORIDA142024
St AugustineFLORIDA132024
Polk CityFLORIDA132024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.