BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 21 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Great Crested Flycatcher In Oaks and Prairies

All regionsOaks and PrairiesAerial insectivores

Great Crested Flycatcher in Oaks and Prairies has declined: down 46% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-46%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
72Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Great Crested Flycatcher in Oaks and Prairies. See the full index history below.

Great Crested Flycatcher In Oaks and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Great Crested Flycatcher in Oaks and Prairies is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 2.3 (95% range 1.1–3.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±6.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+6%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.3Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.1–3.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±6.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great Crested Flycatcher in Oaks and Prairies is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 2.3 (95% range 1.1–3.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±6.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.41.23.6
20272.41.23.6
20282.41.23.6
20292.31.13.6
20302.31.13.5

Routes In Oaks and Prairies

Routes recording Great Crested Flycatcher in Oaks and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
HoldenvilleOKLAHOMA182025
BarnsdallOKLAHOMA181976
LydiaTEXAS182025
HeyburnOKLAHOMA112025
Whit Mtn.TEXAS102019
ArdmoreOKLAHOMA82025
SkiatookOKLAHOMA72019
NobleOKLAHOMA62025
Wolfe CityTEXAS61987
Thornton 2TEXAS62010
BeggsOKLAHOMA52023
ChoctawOKLAHOMA52023
TatumsOKLAHOMA52024
OlneyTEXAS52024
SchroederTEXAS41997
OakwoodTEXAS41980
DallasTEXAS42024
Thornton 3TEXAS42025
Wills PointTEXAS42023
Mill CreekOKLAHOMA32025
Oak GroveTEXAS31999
Peach CreekTEXAS31985
Massey LakeTEXAS32025
OsageTEXAS32025
SadlerTEXAS32025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.