BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 21 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Great Crested Flycatcher In Oaks and Prairies

All regionsOaks and PrairiesAerial insectivores

Great Crested Flycatcher in Oaks and Prairies has declined: down 42% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-42%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
72Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Great Crested Flycatcher in Oaks and Prairies. See the full index history below.

Great Crested Flycatcher In Oaks and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Great Crested Flycatcher in Oaks and Prairies is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 2.4 (95% range 1.1–3.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±7.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-2%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.4Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.1–3.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±7.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great Crested Flycatcher in Oaks and Prairies is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 2.4 (95% range 1.1–3.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±7.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.41.23.7
20262.41.23.6
20272.41.23.6
20282.41.23.6
20292.41.13.6

Routes In Oaks and Prairies

Routes recording Great Crested Flycatcher in Oaks and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
BarnsdallOKLAHOMA181976
HeyburnOKLAHOMA152024
HoldenvilleOKLAHOMA132024
Mill CreekOKLAHOMA102018
Whit Mtn.TEXAS102019
SkiatookOKLAHOMA72019
SadlerTEXAS72024
NobleOKLAHOMA62024
Wolfe CityTEXAS61987
Thornton 2TEXAS62010
BeggsOKLAHOMA52023
ChoctawOKLAHOMA52023
TatumsOKLAHOMA52024
LydiaTEXAS52023
OlneyTEXAS52024
PaigeTEXAS52024
SchroederTEXAS41997
OakwoodTEXAS41980
OlaTEXAS42022
DallasTEXAS42024
WalburgTEXAS42024
CayugaTEXAS42024
Thornton 3TEXAS42024
Blue RidgeTEXAS42024
Wills PointTEXAS42023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.