BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 29 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Great Crested Flycatcher In Piedmont

All regionsPiedmontAerial insectivores

Great Crested Flycatcher in Piedmont has edged up: up 23% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+23%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
170Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Great Crested Flycatcher in Piedmont. See the full index history below.

Great Crested Flycatcher In Piedmont Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Great Crested Flycatcher in Piedmont is projected to rise about 20% by 2029 — from 4.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.5 (95% range 4.4–6.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+20%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.5Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.4–6.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great Crested Flycatcher in Piedmont is projected to rise about 20% by 2029 — from 4.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.5 (95% range 4.4–6.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20255.34.36.4
20265.44.36.4
20275.44.46.5
20285.54.46.5
20295.54.46.5

Routes In Piedmont

Routes recording Great Crested Flycatcher in Piedmont.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Liberty City 2ALABAMA232024
Piedmont NwrGEORGIA222003
Barton CreekSOUTH-CAROLINA222022
Stoney PointGEORGIA192007
WheatonMARYLAND142024
AthensGEORGIA132024
GrovetownGEORGIA132021
Lincolnton 2GEORGIA132024
EmmitsburgMARYLAND132024
Carrs StationGEORGIA122024
Sunny SideGEORGIA122019
WhitmireSOUTH-CAROLINA122024
CrestGEORGIA112022
LincolntonGEORGIA112017
YoungsvilleNORTH-CAROLINA112024
Salem XrdSOUTH-CAROLINA112019
RidgewaySOUTH-CAROLINA112021
DavidVIRGINIA112013
MaxeysGEORGIA102024
Rock BranchGEORGIA102024
GilletteNEW-JERSEY102024
ArcolaNORTH-CAROLINA102024
ChesneeSOUTH-CAROLINA102015
Liberty CityALABAMA92011
HebronGEORGIA92022

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.