BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 29 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Great Crested Flycatcher In Piedmont

All regionsPiedmontAerial insectivores

Great Crested Flycatcher in Piedmont has increased: up 33% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+33%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
170Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Great Crested Flycatcher in Piedmont. See the full index history below.

Great Crested Flycatcher In Piedmont Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Great Crested Flycatcher in Piedmont is projected to fall about 11% by 2030 — from 6.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 5.6 (95% range 4.5–6.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±10.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-11%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.6Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.5–6.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±10.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great Crested Flycatcher in Piedmont is projected to fall about 11% by 2030 — from 6.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 5.6 (95% range 4.5–6.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±10.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20265.44.46.5
20275.54.46.6
20285.54.56.6
20295.64.56.6
20305.64.56.7

Routes In Piedmont

Routes recording Great Crested Flycatcher in Piedmont.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
EmmitsburgMARYLAND372025
WheatonMARYLAND262025
Piedmont NwrGEORGIA222003
Barton CreekSOUTH-CAROLINA222022
Stoney PointGEORGIA192007
Lincolnton 2GEORGIA182025
IjamsvilleMARYLAND182025
Liberty City 2ALABAMA172025
Nixburg 2ALABAMA172025
JordanNORTH-CAROLINA172025
BrodnaxVIRGINIA162025
OlneyMARYLAND142025
GrovetownGEORGIA132021
JulietteGEORGIA132025
Plum BranchSOUTH-CAROLINA132025
Carrs StationGEORGIA122025
Sunny SideGEORGIA122019
Sharon 2GEORGIA122025
WhitmireSOUTH-CAROLINA122024
CrestGEORGIA112025
LincolntonGEORGIA112017
WhitesburgGEORGIA112025
CandlerGEORGIA112025
Rock BranchGEORGIA112025
BullockNORTH-CAROLINA112025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.