BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 22 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Great Crested Flycatcher In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

All regionsEastern Tallgrass PrairieAerial insectivores

Great Crested Flycatcher in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie has risen sharply: up 73% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+73%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
275Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Great Crested Flycatcher has risen sharply in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie: up 73% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Great Crested Flycatcher In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Great Crested Flycatcher in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to fall about 18% by 2030 — from 4.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.3 (95% range 2.5–4.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22.4%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-18%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.3Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.5–4.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±22.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great Crested Flycatcher in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to fall about 18% by 2030 — from 4.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.3 (95% range 2.5–4.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22.4%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.22.44.0
20273.22.44.0
20283.22.44.1
20293.32.44.1
20303.32.54.1

Routes In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

Routes recording Great Crested Flycatcher in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
ReeceKANSAS242025
McfallMISSOURI232025
HumboldtNEBRASKA202025
FrankfordMISSOURI192025
Mascoutah LkILLINOIS172025
MarshallILLINOIS172025
DoverKANSAS172022
GrantvilleKANSAS172022
WrefordKANSAS162024
EllinorKANSAS162025
BradburyILLINOIS152025
EubanksILLINOIS152025
SeveranceKANSAS142025
KingsvilleMISSOURI142025
GeraldMISSOURI142025
AthensILLINOIS132025
SenecaKANSAS132022
RockinghamMISSOURI132025
BelleviewILLINOIS122025
Le LoupKANSAS122021
LincolnvilleKANSAS122024
GildehouseMISSOURI111989
River FallsWISCONSIN112025
GalvestonINDIANA102025
Rock CreekKANSAS102021

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.