BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 27 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Great Crested Flycatcher In Southeastern Coastal Plain

All regionsSoutheastern Coastal PlainAerial insectivores

Great Crested Flycatcher in Southeastern Coastal Plain has surged: up 91% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+91%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
346Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Great Crested Flycatcher has surged in Southeastern Coastal Plain: up 91% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Great Crested Flycatcher In Southeastern Coastal Plain Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Great Crested Flycatcher in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 16 (95% range 14–19). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.6%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+3%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
16Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
14–1995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±13.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great Crested Flycatcher in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 16 (95% range 14–19). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.6%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026161418
2027161418
2028161418
2029161418
2030161419

Routes In Southeastern Coastal Plain

Routes recording Great Crested Flycatcher in Southeastern Coastal Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
LovedaleFLORIDA902011
OlusteeFLORIDA722025
Dowling ParkFLORIDA482025
Green SwampNORTH-CAROLINA452006
ShallotteNORTH-CAROLINA421991
CallahanFLORIDA402024
CaliforniaNORTH-CAROLINA402013
Ware CoGEORGIA392025
BelmontFLORIDA382025
ShilohGEORGIA382025
Myrtle GroveNORTH-CAROLINA382025
SupplyNORTH-CAROLINA382025
Cross CityFLORIDA372023
HilliardFLORIDA362025
PinettaFLORIDA362025
WeberGEORGIA362025
Milltail CrNORTH-CAROLINA362025
Maple HillNORTH-CAROLINA362023
MiccosukeeFLORIDA342025
PhilemaGEORGIA342025
MontagueNORTH-CAROLINA342025
HildrethFLORIDA332009
BostonGEORGIA332025
CouncilGEORGIA332025
Kiawah IslandSOUTH-CAROLINA322025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.