BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 27 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Great Crested Flycatcher In Southeastern Coastal Plain

All regionsSoutheastern Coastal PlainAerial insectivores

Great Crested Flycatcher in Southeastern Coastal Plain has surged: up 78% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+78%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
346Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Great Crested Flycatcher has surged in Southeastern Coastal Plain: up 78% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Great Crested Flycatcher In Southeastern Coastal Plain Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Great Crested Flycatcher in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to rise about 21% by 2029 — from 13 in 2024 to a central estimate of 16 (95% range 14–18). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.8%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+21%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
16Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
14–1895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±17.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great Crested Flycatcher in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to rise about 21% by 2029 — from 13 in 2024 to a central estimate of 16 (95% range 14–18). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.8%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025161318
2026161418
2027161418
2028161418
2029161418

Routes In Southeastern Coastal Plain

Routes recording Great Crested Flycatcher in Southeastern Coastal Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
LovedaleFLORIDA902011
PinettaFLORIDA532024
Dowling ParkFLORIDA512023
Green SwampNORTH-CAROLINA452006
Alligator PtFLORIDA432024
ShallotteNORTH-CAROLINA421991
CallahanFLORIDA402024
CaliforniaNORTH-CAROLINA402013
HilliardFLORIDA382024
Cross CityFLORIDA372023
SandhillsSOUTH-CAROLINA372024
Maple HillNORTH-CAROLINA362023
OlusteeFLORIDA352022
Myrtle GroveNORTH-CAROLINA342024
HildrethFLORIDA332009
WrightsvilleGEORGIA332024
Milltail CrNORTH-CAROLINA332024
SteinhatcheeFLORIDA312023
Hildreth 2FLORIDA312024
ReelsboroNORTH-CAROLINA312019
Broad BranchFLORIDA302024
BelmontFLORIDA302024
New HopeFLORIDA302011
Ware CoGEORGIA302024
CouncilGEORGIA302024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.