BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 14 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Great Crested Flycatcher In Atlantic Northern Forest

All regionsAtlantic Northern ForestAerial insectivores

Great Crested Flycatcher in Atlantic Northern Forest has edged down: down 18% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-18%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
145Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Great Crested Flycatcher in Atlantic Northern Forest. See the full index history below.

Great Crested Flycatcher In Atlantic Northern Forest Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Great Crested Flycatcher in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to fall about 21% by 2029 — from 1.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.3 (95% range 0.57–2.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±7.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-21%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.3Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.57–2.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±7.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great Crested Flycatcher in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to fall about 21% by 2029 — from 1.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.3 (95% range 0.57–2.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±7.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.40.622.2
20261.40.612.1
20271.40.592.1
20281.40.582.1
20291.30.572.1

Routes In Atlantic Northern Forest

Routes recording Great Crested Flycatcher in Atlantic Northern Forest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
WanakenaNEW-YORK72024
FletcherVERMONT72024
ManchesterMAINE61995
JeffersonMAINE62008
Church HillMAINE62017
New HartfordCONNECTICUT51987
Grnd Lk StrmMAINE51992
PeterboroughNEW-HAMPSHIRE52024
DegrasseNEW-YORK52024
ReedsMAINE42024
FreedomMAINE42022
HarmonyMAINE42024
Brownfield 2MAINE42024
Cummington 2MASSACHUSETTS42023
ConcordNEW-HAMPSHIRE42024
CanterburyNEW-HAMPSHIRE42024
KasoagNEW-YORK42024
Post MillsVERMONT42024
TurnerMAINE32010
GreenwoodMAINE32024
BrooksMAINE32019
Carrying PlMAINE32024
CarrabassettMAINE31993
CambridgeMAINE32013
BrownfieldMAINE32009

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.