BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 14 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Great Crested Flycatcher In Atlantic Northern Forest

All regionsAtlantic Northern ForestAerial insectivores

Great Crested Flycatcher in Atlantic Northern Forest has edged down: down 16% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-16%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
145Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Great Crested Flycatcher in Atlantic Northern Forest. See the full index history below.

Great Crested Flycatcher In Atlantic Northern Forest Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Great Crested Flycatcher in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 1.3 (95% range 0.58–2.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±9.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-9%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.3Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.58–2.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±9.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great Crested Flycatcher in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 1.3 (95% range 0.58–2.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±9.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.40.622.1
20271.40.612.1
20281.40.602.1
20291.40.592.1
20301.30.582.1

Routes In Atlantic Northern Forest

Routes recording Great Crested Flycatcher in Atlantic Northern Forest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Turner 2MAINE82025
East TroyMAINE72021
CanterburyNEW-HAMPSHIRE72025
ManchesterMAINE61995
JeffersonMAINE62008
Church HillMAINE62017
GlenNEW-HAMPSHIRE62025
DegrasseNEW-YORK62025
New HartfordCONNECTICUT51987
Grnd Lk StrmMAINE51992
KasoagNEW-YORK52025
FreedomMAINE42022
HarmonyMAINE42025
MontereyMASSACHUSETTS42025
TurnerMAINE32010
ReedsMAINE32025
HartfordMAINE32025
BrooksMAINE32019
HermonMAINE32021
Carrying PlMAINE32025
CarrabassettMAINE31993
CambridgeMAINE32013
BrownfieldMAINE32009
ConcordNEW-HAMPSHIRE32025
Mt ChocoruaNEW-HAMPSHIRE32025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.