BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 28 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Great Crested Flycatcher In Appalachian Mountains

All regionsAppalachian MountainsAerial insectivores

Great Crested Flycatcher in Appalachian Mountains has declined: down 32% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-32%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
396Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Great Crested Flycatcher in Appalachian Mountains. See the full index history below.

Great Crested Flycatcher In Appalachian Mountains Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Great Crested Flycatcher in Appalachian Mountains is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 2.2 (95% range 1.4–3.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+9%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.2Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.4–3.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±14.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great Crested Flycatcher in Appalachian Mountains is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 2.2 (95% range 1.4–3.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.31.53.1
20262.31.53.0
20272.31.53.0
20282.21.53.0
20292.21.43.0

Routes In Appalachian Mountains

Routes recording Great Crested Flycatcher in Appalachian Mountains.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
WilliamsportMARYLAND182024
Sunny EveALABAMA132024
GreensportALABAMA122024
RydePENNSYLVANIA122005
Sleepy CreekWEST-VIRGINIA111990
ShanghaiWEST-VIRGINIA112022
Borden Springs 2ALABAMA102024
DoverNEW-JERSEY102023
OxfordNEW-YORK101976
Jonas RidgeNORTH-CAROLINA101968
New MarketVIRGINIA102024
GreentownPENNSYLVANIA92024
PortersvillePENNSYLVANIA91988
DearmanvilleALABAMA81983
RiversideALABAMA82013
ShannonGEORGIA82019
Cumberlnd GpKENTUCKY82018
ClimerTENNESSEE82004
StanleyVIRGINIA82024
RioWEST-VIRGINIA81995
Mt OliveALABAMA72024
ChoccoloccoALABAMA72024
TalladegaALABAMA72024
DrummondALABAMA72024
OldtownMARYLAND72024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.