BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 28 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Great Crested Flycatcher In Appalachian Mountains

All regionsAppalachian MountainsAerial insectivores

Great Crested Flycatcher in Appalachian Mountains has declined: down 30% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-30%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
397Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Great Crested Flycatcher in Appalachian Mountains. See the full index history below.

Great Crested Flycatcher In Appalachian Mountains Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Great Crested Flycatcher in Appalachian Mountains is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 2.2 (95% range 1.4–3.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±10.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-2%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.2Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.4–3.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±10.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great Crested Flycatcher in Appalachian Mountains is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 2.2 (95% range 1.4–3.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±10.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.31.53.0
20272.21.53.0
20282.21.53.0
20292.21.43.0
20302.21.43.0

Routes In Appalachian Mountains

Routes recording Great Crested Flycatcher in Appalachian Mountains.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Sunny EveALABAMA172025
GreensportALABAMA142025
ChoccoloccoALABAMA142025
WilliamsportMARYLAND132025
RydePENNSYLVANIA122005
Sleepy CreekWEST-VIRGINIA111990
Borden Springs 2ALABAMA102024
DoverNEW-JERSEY102023
OxfordNEW-YORK101976
Jonas RidgeNORTH-CAROLINA101968
HonesdalePENNSYLVANIA102025
StanleyVIRGINIA102025
GreentownPENNSYLVANIA92024
PortersvillePENNSYLVANIA91988
Drehersville 2PENNSYLVANIA92025
DearmanvilleALABAMA81983
OdenvilleALABAMA82025
TalladegaALABAMA82025
RiversideALABAMA82013
ShannonGEORGIA82019
Cumberlnd GpKENTUCKY82018
RamseysburgNEW-JERSEY82025
MifflintownPENNSYLVANIA82025
ClimerTENNESSEE82004
RioWEST-VIRGINIA81995

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.