BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 13 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Great Crested Flycatcher In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

All regionsLower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence PlainAerial insectivores

Great Crested Flycatcher in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain has held roughly steady: down 1% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-1%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
86Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Great Crested Flycatcher in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain. See the full index history below.

Great Crested Flycatcher In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Great Crested Flycatcher in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to fall about 18% by 2030 — from 3.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.5 (95% range 1.7–3.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-18%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.5Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.7–3.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±14.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great Crested Flycatcher in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to fall about 18% by 2030 — from 3.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.5 (95% range 1.7–3.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.61.73.4
20272.51.73.4
20282.51.73.4
20292.51.73.4
20302.51.73.4

Routes In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

Routes recording Great Crested Flycatcher in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
CayugaNEW-YORK102025
ChurchvilleNEW-YORK102025
SheridanNEW-YORK92025
WatertownNEW-YORK92011
N VictoryNEW-YORK91972
Cicero CtrNEW-YORK72025
PhiladelphiaNEW-YORK72025
GhentNEW-YORK62025
BranchportNEW-YORK62024
Canadice LNEW-YORK62025
NashvilleNEW-YORK62018
N WilmurtNEW-YORK61998
OgdensburgNEW-YORK62025
NaplesNEW-YORK62025
Ballston LkNEW-YORK51995
St JohnsburgNEW-YORK52025
N Victory 2NEW-YORK52019
PulaskiNEW-YORK52025
TeeplevillePENNSYLVANIA52025
HighlandNEW-YORK42022
W ShokanNEW-YORK42019
AusterlitzNEW-YORK42025
Oriskany FlsNEW-YORK42025
TrumansburgNEW-YORK42024
RushvilleNEW-YORK42025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.