BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 13 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Great Crested Flycatcher In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

All regionsLower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence PlainAerial insectivores

Great Crested Flycatcher in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain has held roughly steady: down 8% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-8%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
86Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Great Crested Flycatcher in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain. See the full index history below.

Great Crested Flycatcher In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Great Crested Flycatcher in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 2.5 (95% range 1.6–3.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-4%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.5Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.6–3.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±11.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great Crested Flycatcher in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 2.5 (95% range 1.6–3.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.51.73.4
20262.51.73.4
20272.51.63.4
20282.51.63.4
20292.51.63.4

Routes In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

Routes recording Great Crested Flycatcher in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
WatertownNEW-YORK92011
NaplesNEW-YORK92024
N VictoryNEW-YORK91972
Mt MorrisNEW-YORK72024
CastileNEW-YORK72024
Oriskany FlsNEW-YORK62024
CayugaNEW-YORK62024
BranchportNEW-YORK62024
NashvilleNEW-YORK62018
N WilmurtNEW-YORK61998
HarmonsburgPENNSYLVANIA62023
AusterlitzNEW-YORK52024
Ballston LkNEW-YORK51995
OrleansNEW-YORK52024
ChurchvilleNEW-YORK52024
PenfieldNEW-YORK52024
N Victory 2NEW-YORK52019
Cicero CtrNEW-YORK52024
SalemNEW-YORK52024
RhinebeckNEW-YORK42024
HighlandNEW-YORK42022
W ShokanNEW-YORK42019
TrumansburgNEW-YORK42024
HamburgNEW-YORK42024
North EastonNEW-YORK42024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.