BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 30 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Great Crested Flycatcher In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

All regionsNew England / Mid-Atlantic CoastAerial insectivores

Great Crested Flycatcher in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast has risen sharply: up 62% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+62%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
162Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Great Crested Flycatcher has risen sharply in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast: up 62% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Great Crested Flycatcher In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Great Crested Flycatcher in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 6.9 (95% range 5.3–8.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±10.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-6%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6.9Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
5.3–8.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±10.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great Crested Flycatcher in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 6.9 (95% range 5.3–8.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±10.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20256.75.18.2
20266.75.28.3
20276.85.28.3
20286.85.38.4
20296.95.38.5

Routes In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

Routes recording Great Crested Flycatcher in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
HongaMARYLAND512024
MadisonMARYLAND452024
Spraguetown 3NEW-JERSEY382024
HarringtonDELAWARE282024
CokesburyMARYLAND242024
PomonaNEW-JERSEY242024
PepperboxDELAWARE162016
Milton 2DELAWARE162017
Furnace TownMARYLAND152024
Tall TimbersMARYLAND132014
WalkersVIRGINIA132023
Pepperbox 2DELAWARE122024
EastonMARYLAND122021
FruitlandMARYLAND121998
WalnutMARYLAND122024
FriendshipNEW-JERSEY122024
HarmonyMARYLAND112017
BrocktonMASSACHUSETTS112019
Cape May ChNEW-JERSEY112013
Woodstock 2CONNECTICUT102024
MatthewsMARYLAND102024
BerlinMARYLAND102024
MarionMASSACHUSETTS102024
StraffordNEW-HAMPSHIRE102024
AncoraNEW-JERSEY101977

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.