BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 30 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Great Crested Flycatcher In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

All regionsNew England / Mid-Atlantic CoastAerial insectivores

Great Crested Flycatcher in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast has risen sharply: up 73% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+73%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
162Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Great Crested Flycatcher has risen sharply in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast: up 73% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Great Crested Flycatcher In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Great Crested Flycatcher in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to fall about 14% by 2030 — from 8.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 7.1 (95% range 5.5–8.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.1%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-14%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
7.1Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
5.5–8.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±15.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great Crested Flycatcher in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to fall about 14% by 2030 — from 8.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 7.1 (95% range 5.5–8.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.1%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20266.85.28.4
20276.95.38.5
20286.95.48.5
20297.05.48.6
20307.15.58.7

Routes In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

Routes recording Great Crested Flycatcher in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
HongaMARYLAND402025
Spraguetown 3NEW-JERSEY402025
CokesburyMARYLAND342025
MadisonMARYLAND282025
Pepperbox 2DELAWARE272025
PomonaNEW-JERSEY262025
HarringtonDELAWARE252025
EastonMARYLAND172025
PepperboxDELAWARE162016
Island CreekMARYLAND142025
Tall TimbersMARYLAND132014
HughesvilleMARYLAND132025
MarionMASSACHUSETTS132025
ShannockRHODE-ISLAND132025
WalkersVIRGINIA132023
Woodstock 2CONNECTICUT122025
MillingtonMARYLAND122025
Piney NeckMARYLAND122025
FruitlandMARYLAND121998
Furnace TownMARYLAND122025
WalnutMARYLAND122024
WinslowNEW-JERSEY122025
Bennett Mill 2NEW-JERSEY122025
HarmonyMARYLAND112017
BrocktonMASSACHUSETTS112019

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.