BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 36 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Great Crested Flycatcher In Tamaulipan Brushlands

All regionsTamaulipan BrushlandsAerial insectivores

Great Crested Flycatcher in Tamaulipan Brushlands has declined: down 45% on the route-weighted index since 1976.

-45%Since 1976TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
13Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
27YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Great Crested Flycatcher in Tamaulipan Brushlands. See the full index history below.

Great Crested Flycatcher In Tamaulipan Brushlands Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Great Crested Flycatcher in Tamaulipan Brushlands is projected to rise about 246% by 2028 — from 0.06 in 2023 to a central estimate of 0.20 (95% range 0.00–0.50). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±91.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+246%Change by 2028TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.20Projected 2028 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.5095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±91.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great Crested Flycatcher in Tamaulipan Brushlands is projected to rise about 246% by 2028 — from 0.06 in 2023 to a central estimate of 0.20 (95% range 0.00–0.50). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±91.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20240.200.000.50
20250.200.000.50
20260.200.000.50
20270.200.000.50
20280.200.000.50

Routes In Tamaulipan Brushlands

Routes recording Great Crested Flycatcher in Tamaulipan Brushlands.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
KingsvilleTEXAS32002
San YgnacioTEXAS31969
Mirando CityTEXAS22011
La PryorTEXAS22005
RaymondvilleTEXAS21980
SejitaTEXAS22021
LaredoTEXAS22004
RachalTEXAS11970
ZapataTEXAS11980
RandadoTEXAS12005
George WestTEXAS12019
HondoTEXAS11989
El SauzTEXAS12023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.