BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Great Crested Flycatcher In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesAerial insectivores

Great Crested Flycatcher in Prairie Potholes has surged: up 315% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+315%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
65Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Great Crested Flycatcher has surged in Prairie Potholes: up 315% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Great Crested Flycatcher In Prairie Potholes Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Great Crested Flycatcher in Prairie Potholes is projected to fall about 25% by 2030 — from 1.7 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.2 (95% range 0.71–1.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±10%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-25%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.2Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.71–1.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±10%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great Crested Flycatcher in Prairie Potholes is projected to fall about 25% by 2030 — from 1.7 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.2 (95% range 0.71–1.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±10%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.20.671.8
20271.20.681.8
20281.20.691.8
20291.20.701.8
20301.20.711.8

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording Great Crested Flycatcher in Prairie Potholes.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
MidwayNEBRASKA192025
BeltramiMINNESOTA172025
Eagle CreekNEBRASKA122025
BadgerMINNESOTA112018
EmeradoNORTH-DAKOTA102025
Lake BronsonMINNESOTA72011
SpartaNEBRASKA72025
AbercrombieNORTH-DAKOTA72012
DawsonMINNESOTA62024
AppletonMINNESOTA62025
FairmontMINNESOTA62025
Turtle MtnsNORTH-DAKOTA62025
GarnerIOWA51993
TenneyMINNESOTA52015
OkleeMINNESOTA52021
Chokio NorthMINNESOTA52025
WilmotSOUTH-DAKOTA52025
WashingtonIOWA42025
ChokioMINNESOTA42025
GlyndonMINNESOTA42025
HuntleyMINNESOTA32025
MaynardMINNESOTA32015
WylieMINNESOTA32024
TracyMINNESOTA32025
WalcottNORTH-DAKOTA32023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.