BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Great Crested Flycatcher In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesAerial insectivores

Great Crested Flycatcher in Prairie Potholes has surged: up 274% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+274%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
65Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Great Crested Flycatcher has surged in Prairie Potholes: up 274% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Great Crested Flycatcher In Prairie Potholes Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Great Crested Flycatcher in Prairie Potholes is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 1.2 (95% range 0.67–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+6%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.2Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.67–1.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±13.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great Crested Flycatcher in Prairie Potholes is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 1.2 (95% range 0.67–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.20.641.7
20261.20.651.7
20271.20.661.7
20281.20.661.7
20291.20.671.7

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording Great Crested Flycatcher in Prairie Potholes.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Eagle CreekNEBRASKA192024
MidwayNEBRASKA162023
BadgerMINNESOTA112018
Lake BronsonMINNESOTA72011
AbercrombieNORTH-DAKOTA72012
DawsonMINNESOTA62024
BeltramiMINNESOTA62024
EmeradoNORTH-DAKOTA62024
CooperstownNORTH-DAKOTA62024
GarnerIOWA51993
TenneyMINNESOTA52015
OkleeMINNESOTA52021
WilmotSOUTH-DAKOTA52024
ArlingtonMINNESOTA42023
AppletonMINNESOTA42024
TracyMINNESOTA42024
Turtle MtnsNORTH-DAKOTA42024
WashingtonIOWA32024
MaynardMINNESOTA32015
WylieMINNESOTA32024
FairmontMINNESOTA32023
TildenNEBRASKA32024
WalcottNORTH-DAKOTA32023
NashNORTH-DAKOTA32015
ZearingIOWA21995

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.