BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Great Crested Flycatcher In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesAerial insectivores

Great Crested Flycatcher in Prairie Potholes has surged: up 274% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+274%Since 1969
65Routes In Region
57Years

Notable Signals

long arc increasecomputed index

Great Crested Flycatcher has surged in Prairie Potholes: up 274% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Great Crested Flycatcher in Prairie Potholes is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 1.2 (95% range 0.67–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+6%Change by 2029
1.2Projected 2029 index
0.67–1.795% range
±13.1%Backtest error
19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20251.20.641.7
20261.20.651.7
20271.20.661.7
20281.20.661.7
20291.20.671.7

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording Great Crested Flycatcher in Prairie Potholes.
Eagle CreekNEBRASKA192024
MidwayNEBRASKA162023
BadgerMINNESOTA112018
Lake BronsonMINNESOTA72011
AbercrombieNORTH-DAKOTA72012
DawsonMINNESOTA62024
BeltramiMINNESOTA62024
EmeradoNORTH-DAKOTA62024
CooperstownNORTH-DAKOTA62024
GarnerIOWA51993
TenneyMINNESOTA52015
OkleeMINNESOTA52021
WilmotSOUTH-DAKOTA52024
ArlingtonMINNESOTA42023
AppletonMINNESOTA42024
TracyMINNESOTA42024
Turtle MtnsNORTH-DAKOTA42024
WashingtonIOWA32024
MaynardMINNESOTA32015
WylieMINNESOTA32024
FairmontMINNESOTA32023
TildenNEBRASKA32024
WalcottNORTH-DAKOTA32023
NashNORTH-DAKOTA32015
ZearingIOWA21995

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.