BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 18 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Great Crested Flycatcher In Shortgrass Prairie

All regionsShortgrass PrairieAerial insectivores

Great Crested Flycatcher in Shortgrass Prairie has increased: up 42% on the route-weighted index since 1983.

+42%Since 1983TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
10Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
41YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Great Crested Flycatcher in Shortgrass Prairie. See the full index history below.

Great Crested Flycatcher In Shortgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Great Crested Flycatcher in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to fall about 47% by 2029 — from 0.12 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.06 (95% range 0.00–0.12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±55.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-47%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.06Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±55.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great Crested Flycatcher in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to fall about 47% by 2029 — from 0.12 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.06 (95% range 0.00–0.12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±55.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19802029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.060.000.12
20260.060.000.12
20270.060.000.12
20280.060.000.12
20290.060.000.12

Routes In Shortgrass Prairie

Routes recording Great Crested Flycatcher in Shortgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Pine RidgeNEBRASKA92024
BereaNEBRASKA22018
CrawfordNEBRASKA22019
CrowleyCOLORADO11990
HaswellCOLORADO11992
WallaceKANSAS12010
Murray LakeNEBRASKA12002
HardestyOKLAHOMA11996
Clear LakeOKLAHOMA12024
MiamiTEXAS12003

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.