BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 18 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Great Crested Flycatcher In Shortgrass Prairie

All regionsShortgrass PrairieAerial insectivores

Great Crested Flycatcher in Shortgrass Prairie has surged: up 98% on the route-weighted index since 1983.

+98%Since 1983TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
10Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
42YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Great Crested Flycatcher has surged in Shortgrass Prairie: up 98% on the route-weighted index since 1983.

Great Crested Flycatcher In Shortgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Great Crested Flycatcher in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to fall about 57% by 2030 — from 0.18 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.08 (95% range 0.01–0.15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±67.4%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-57%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.08Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.01–0.1595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±67.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great Crested Flycatcher in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to fall about 57% by 2030 — from 0.18 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.08 (95% range 0.01–0.15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±67.4%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19802030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.070.010.14
20270.070.010.14
20280.080.010.14
20290.080.010.15
20300.080.010.15

Routes In Shortgrass Prairie

Routes recording Great Crested Flycatcher in Shortgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Pine RidgeNEBRASKA112025
Clear LakeOKLAHOMA32025
BereaNEBRASKA22018
CrawfordNEBRASKA22019
CrowleyCOLORADO11990
HaswellCOLORADO11992
WallaceKANSAS12010
Murray LakeNEBRASKA12002
HardestyOKLAHOMA11996
MiamiTEXAS12003

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.