BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 23 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Great Crested Flycatcher In Prairie Hardwood Transition

All regionsPrairie Hardwood TransitionAerial insectivores

Great Crested Flycatcher in Prairie Hardwood Transition has edged up: up 14% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+14%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
161Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Great Crested Flycatcher in Prairie Hardwood Transition. See the full index history below.

Great Crested Flycatcher In Prairie Hardwood Transition Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Great Crested Flycatcher in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to fall about 15% by 2030 — from 4.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.9 (95% range 2.8–5.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±8.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-15%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.9Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.8–5.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±8.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great Crested Flycatcher in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to fall about 15% by 2030 — from 4.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.9 (95% range 2.8–5.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±8.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.92.85.0
20273.92.85.0
20283.92.85.0
20293.92.85.0
20303.92.85.0

Routes In Prairie Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Great Crested Flycatcher in Prairie Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
MinnetonkaMINNESOTA222025
Chippewa Lk.MICHIGAN182025
PrincetonMINNESOTA152025
HolwayWISCONSIN151989
No BradleyMICHIGAN142025
EdenWISCONSIN132025
EvergreenMINNESOTA122025
LawrenceMICHIGAN112025
HungerfordMICHIGAN112025
Sherburne NrMINNESOTA112025
Fall RiverWISCONSIN112025
Big RapidsMICHIGAN101990
CohoctahMICHIGAN102025
OsseoMINNESOTA102025
AshbyMINNESOTA102021
New BuffaloMICHIGAN92014
Barry S.G.A. 2MICHIGAN92019
KnappMINNESOTA92025
Mukwonago 2WISCONSIN92025
DeckervilleMICHIGAN82024
EdwardsMINNESOTA82024
WhitewaterMINNESOTA82000
DresserWISCONSIN82025
PardeevilleWISCONSIN82025
BrownsvilleWISCONSIN82025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.