BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 23 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Great Crested Flycatcher In Prairie Hardwood Transition

All regionsPrairie Hardwood TransitionAerial insectivores

Great Crested Flycatcher in Prairie Hardwood Transition has held roughly steady: up 5% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+5%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
161Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Great Crested Flycatcher in Prairie Hardwood Transition. See the full index history below.

Great Crested Flycatcher In Prairie Hardwood Transition Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Great Crested Flycatcher in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 12% by 2029 — from 3.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.9 (95% range 2.8–4.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±6.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+12%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.9Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.8–4.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±6.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great Crested Flycatcher in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 12% by 2029 — from 3.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.9 (95% range 2.8–4.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±6.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.92.85.0
20263.92.85.0
20273.92.85.0
20283.92.85.0
20293.92.84.9

Routes In Prairie Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Great Crested Flycatcher in Prairie Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
HolwayWISCONSIN151989
EvergreenMINNESOTA132024
EdenWISCONSIN122024
RemusMICHIGAN112024
Big RapidsMICHIGAN101990
No BradleyMICHIGAN102024
Chippewa Lk.MICHIGAN102024
KnappMINNESOTA102024
AshbyMINNESOTA102021
Chatfield 2MINNESOTA102024
PardeevilleWISCONSIN102024
New BuffaloMICHIGAN92014
Barry S.G.A. 2MICHIGAN92019
DresserWISCONSIN92024
CoopersvilleMICHIGAN82024
DeckervilleMICHIGAN82024
HungerfordMICHIGAN82024
PrincetonMINNESOTA82024
EdwardsMINNESOTA82024
Sherburne NrMINNESOTA82024
WhitewaterMINNESOTA82000
Mukwonago 2WISCONSIN82024
AlmenaMICHIGAN72015
CumberlandWISCONSIN72024
ClintonvilleWISCONSIN72024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.