BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 26 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Great Crested Flycatcher In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

All regionsMississippi Alluvial ValleyAerial insectivores

Great Crested Flycatcher in Mississippi Alluvial Valley has surged: up 110% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+110%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
72Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Great Crested Flycatcher has surged in Mississippi Alluvial Valley: up 110% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Great Crested Flycatcher In Mississippi Alluvial Valley Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Great Crested Flycatcher in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 5.6 (95% range 4.2–6.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-6%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.6Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.2–6.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±14.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great Crested Flycatcher in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 5.6 (95% range 4.2–6.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20265.34.06.7
20275.44.16.8
20285.54.16.8
20295.54.26.9
20305.64.26.9

Routes In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

Routes recording Great Crested Flycatcher in Mississippi Alluvial Valley.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
CommerceMISSISSIPPI181993
Tensas NwrLOUISIANA162025
Delta N.F.MISSISSIPPI142021
TallahatchieMISSISSIPPI142025
TransylvaniaLOUISIANA132025
KraemerLOUISIANA122025
South BendARKANSAS112025
SaffellARKANSAS102019
Bardwell 2KENTUCKY102025
MayflowerLOUISIANA102025
Baton RougeLOUISIANA102025
FrogmoreLOUISIANA92025
DundeeMISSISSIPPI92022
TippoMISSISSIPPI92025
EnglandARKANSAS82025
RamahLOUISIANA82025
GibsonLOUISIANA82019
Dahomey NwrMISSISSIPPI82025
HarrisburgARKANSAS72012
MaynardARKANSAS72025
Crowley'S RidgeARKANSAS72025
GonzalesLOUISIANA72019
CarlisleLOUISIANA61988
RoselandLOUISIANA62025
Warren VickMISSISSIPPI62022

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.