BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 24 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Great Crested Flycatcher In Central Hardwoods

All regionsCentral HardwoodsAerial insectivores

Great Crested Flycatcher in Central Hardwoods has held roughly steady: up 1% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+1%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
166Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Great Crested Flycatcher in Central Hardwoods. See the full index history below.

Great Crested Flycatcher In Central Hardwoods Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Great Crested Flycatcher in Central Hardwoods is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 4.2 (95% range 3.2–5.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±6.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+6%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.2Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.2–5.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±6.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great Crested Flycatcher in Central Hardwoods is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 4.2 (95% range 3.2–5.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±6.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20254.23.25.2
20264.23.25.2
20274.23.25.2
20284.23.25.2
20294.23.25.2

Routes In Central Hardwoods

Routes recording Great Crested Flycatcher in Central Hardwoods.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
BremenILLINOIS232024
Bays ForkKENTUCKY232019
BelknapILLINOIS212024
RoyaltonILLINOIS202024
CampbellsvilleTENNESSEE182017
RussellARKANSAS172021
YorkILLINOIS152024
WhitewaterMISSOURI152024
Trace CollinwoodTENNESSEE152018
Beaverdam LkILLINOIS142023
IrontonMISSOURI131980
PalaceMISSOURI132024
GeorgiaINDIANA112024
Mammoth CaveKENTUCKY112014
PulaskiILLINOIS102024
MorganfieldKENTUCKY102024
RiverqueenKENTUCKY102024
BradyvilleTENNESSEE102021
TrianaALABAMA92012
CelestineINDIANA92024
BarksMISSOURI92024
SanduskyILLINOIS82023
LincolnMISSOURI82024
CollinwoodTENNESSEE82024
FarwellARKANSAS72018

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.