BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 19 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Great Crested Flycatcher In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

All regionsCentral Mixed Grass PrairieAerial insectivores

Great Crested Flycatcher in Central Mixed Grass Prairie has surged: up 177% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+177%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
110Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Great Crested Flycatcher has surged in Central Mixed Grass Prairie: up 177% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Great Crested Flycatcher In Central Mixed Grass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Great Crested Flycatcher in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to rise about 25% by 2030 — from 3.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.2 (95% range 3.3–5.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+25%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.2Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.3–5.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±13.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great Crested Flycatcher in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to rise about 25% by 2030 — from 3.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.2 (95% range 3.3–5.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20264.03.15.0
20274.13.15.0
20284.13.25.1
20294.23.25.1
20304.23.35.2

Routes In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

Routes recording Great Crested Flycatcher in Central Mixed Grass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
CovertKANSAS272025
Red CloudNEBRASKA272024
Wichita MtnsOKLAHOMA211994
KanopolisKANSAS202025
BradyNEBRASKA172025
BerwetKANSAS162025
WellingtonKANSAS152025
WoodwardOKLAHOMA142025
Ft Sill WestOKLAHOMA141994
GrimesOKLAHOMA132025
AshlandKANSAS112021
PhrosoOKLAHOMA102025
ChapmanKANSAS91981
HanoverKANSAS92025
SicklesOKLAHOMA92021
DaltonKANSAS82025
Eagle CityOKLAHOMA82010
Wichita Mts WestOKLAHOMA82025
CoatsKANSAS72025
BuckeyeKANSAS72023
HollenbergKANSAS72025
JamestownKANSAS72025
CashionOKLAHOMA72024
ArapahoOKLAHOMA72008
MinneapolisKANSAS62019

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.