BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 37 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Great Crested Flycatcher In Gulf Coastal Prairie

All regionsGulf Coastal PrairieAerial insectivores

Great Crested Flycatcher in Gulf Coastal Prairie has declined: down 37% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-37%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
30Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Great Crested Flycatcher in Gulf Coastal Prairie. See the full index history below.

Great Crested Flycatcher In Gulf Coastal Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Great Crested Flycatcher in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to fall about 35% by 2030 — from 0.59 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.39 (95% range 0.00–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-35%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.39Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±24.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great Crested Flycatcher in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to fall about 35% by 2030 — from 0.59 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.39 (95% range 0.00–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.420.001.3
20270.410.001.3
20280.400.001.3
20290.390.001.3
20300.390.001.3

Routes In Gulf Coastal Prairie

Routes recording Great Crested Flycatcher in Gulf Coastal Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
JuniorLOUISIANA111991
Moon Lake 2TEXAS62023
Vinton 2LOUISIANA42025
LafitteLOUISIANA21991
EstherLOUISIANA22025
KaplanLOUISIANA22013
RichardLOUISIANA22025
Ville PlatteLOUISIANA22019
VintonLOUISIANA22009
Lag AtascosaTEXAS21971
WinnieTEXAS22012
MamouLOUISIANA11980
HackberryLOUISIANA12016
GlencoeLOUISIANA12013
MauriceLOUISIANA11996
Ltl ChenierLOUISIANA12014
Hackberry 2LOUISIANA12025
WoodlawnLOUISIANA12017
Hinkles FerTEXAS12025
VanderbiltTEXAS11976
IndianolaTEXAS11999
StowellTEXAS11971
DanburyTEXAS11998
KatyTEXAS12016
Rock IslandTEXAS12025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.