BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 37 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Great Crested Flycatcher In Gulf Coastal Prairie

All regionsGulf Coastal PrairieAerial insectivores

Great Crested Flycatcher in Gulf Coastal Prairie has declined: down 35% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-35%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
30Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
54YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Great Crested Flycatcher in Gulf Coastal Prairie. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Great Crested Flycatcher in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to fall about 11% by 2029 — from 0.43 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.38 (95% range 0.00–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-11%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.38Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±26.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great Crested Flycatcher in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to fall about 11% by 2029 — from 0.43 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.38 (95% range 0.00–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.410.001.3
20260.410.001.3
20270.400.001.3
20280.390.001.3
20290.380.001.3

Routes In Gulf Coastal Prairie

Routes recording Great Crested Flycatcher in Gulf Coastal Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
JuniorLOUISIANA111991
Moon Lake 2TEXAS62023
Vinton 2LOUISIANA42024
San PedroTEXAS32017
LafitteLOUISIANA21991
KaplanLOUISIANA22013
Ville PlatteLOUISIANA22019
VintonLOUISIANA22009
Lag AtascosaTEXAS21971
Hinkles FerTEXAS22024
WinnieTEXAS22012
MamouLOUISIANA11980
HackberryLOUISIANA12016
GlencoeLOUISIANA12013
EstherLOUISIANA12023
MauriceLOUISIANA11996
RichardLOUISIANA12023
Ltl ChenierLOUISIANA12014
Hackberry 2LOUISIANA12024
WoodlawnLOUISIANA12017
VanderbiltTEXAS11976
IndianolaTEXAS11999
StowellTEXAS11971
DanburyTEXAS11998
KatyTEXAS12016

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.