BirdAnalyst
Species · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Killdeer

CharadriidaeShorebirdsCharadrius vociferus

Killdeer has increased: up 40% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+40%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3,810RoutesSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58Years SurveyedYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

About the Killdeer

A noisy, double-banded plover at home far from water, the Killdeer nests on gravel and gives a broken-wing display to lure intruders from its nest.

Size
8–11 in long, about 3.4 oz (20–28 cm, 95 g)
Habitat
Shorelines, mudflats, beaches, flooded fields and wet meadows.
Diet
Insects and other invertebrates picked from open ground.
Range
Recorded on 3,810 Breeding Bird Survey routes across 49 states, most concentrated in the Appalachian Mountains.
Family
Charadriidae · Shorebirds
Conservation
Least Concern

Notable Killdeer TrendsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Killdeer. See the full index history below.

Killdeer Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Killdeer is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 5.1 (95% range 3.6–6.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+8%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.1Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.6–6.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±15.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Killdeer is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 5.1 (95% range 3.6–6.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20255.13.66.6
20265.13.66.6
20275.13.66.6
20285.13.66.6
20295.13.66.6

Where the Killdeer Is Detected

BBS routes recording Killdeer, sized by most recent count.

Killdeer Population Trend by State

Killdeer population trend by state.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Alabama-2%1968101
Alaska+260%19956
Arizona-25%197059
Arkansas+196%196954
California-32%1970197
Colorado-66%1970139
Connecticut-42%196819
Delaware+98%196817
Florida-53%1968113
Georgia+493%1968103
Idaho-84%197056
Illinois+656%1968105
Indiana+466%196868
Iowa+669%196939
Kansas+20%196967
Kentucky+73%196858
Louisiana+66%1969100
Maine-91%196860
Maryland+15%196875
Massachusetts-68%196830
Michigan-20%196898
Minnesota+30%196988
Mississippi+252%196862
Missouri+241%196993
Montana-39%1970105
Nebraska+126%196976
Nevada-37%197048
New Hampshire-91%196825
New Jersey+73%196840
New Mexico-16%197079
New York-35%1968125
North Carolina21×196896
North Dakota+73%196951
Ohio+190%196888
Oklahoma-6%196968
Oregon-58%1970109
Pennsylvania-3%1968129
Rhode Island-67%19695
South Carolina+95%197048
South Dakota-18%196960
Tennessee+33%196846
Texas-59%1969242
Utah+41%197088
Vermont-94%196826
Virginia+27%196871
Washington-39%197093
West Virginia-35%196860
Wisconsin+13%196896
Wyoming-21%1970129

Killdeer Population Trend by Region

Bird Conservation Regions are the ecological unit for trends.

Killdeer population trend by Bird Conservation Region.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Northern Pacific Rainforest-73%197089
Great Basin-46%1970237
Northern Rockies-55%1970196
Prairie Potholes+55%1969124
Boreal Hardwood Transition-62%1968111
Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain-7%196886
Atlantic Northern Forest-90%1968133
Sierra Nevada-88%197125
Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau-65%1970186
Badlands and Prairies-46%1969133
Shortgrass Prairie+2%1969137
Central Mixed Grass Prairie+29%1969130
Edwards Plateau-81%196920
Oaks and Prairies-70%196973
Eastern Tallgrass Prairie+379%1968278
Prairie Hardwood Transition+56%1968161
Central Hardwoods+97%1968156
West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas-77%1969101
Mississippi Alluvial Valley+319%196873
Southeastern Coastal Plain+188%1968310
Appalachian Mountains-24%1968350
Piedmont+32%1968164
New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast+24%1968156
Peninsular Florida-66%196877
Coastal California-29%1970107
Sonoran and Mojave Deserts+315%197044
Sierra Madre Occidental-93%197026
Chihuahuan Desert+61%197050
Tamaulipan Brushlands-68%196928
Gulf Coastal Prairie-15%196948

Killdeer Conservation Status

Least Concern

The IUCN Red List rates this species as Least Concern. Our route-weighted index shows it up about 40% since 1968. Many shorebirds have declined steeply, reflecting pressure on the coastal and wetland stopovers they depend on.

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22. Trend is a route-weighted relative-abundance index, not an absolute population.