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Species · Pennsylvania · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Killdeer Population Trend in Pennsylvania

All statesShorebirds

Killdeer in Pennsylvania has held roughly steady: down 4% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-4%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
129Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Killdeer Trends in PennsylvaniaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Killdeer in Pennsylvania. See the full index history below.

Killdeer Population Forecast in Pennsylvania

If the recent trend holds, Killdeer in Pennsylvania is projected to rise about 21% by 2030 — from 2.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.9 (95% range 1.3–4.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+21%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.9Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.3–4.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±26%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Killdeer in Pennsylvania is projected to rise about 21% by 2030 — from 2.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.9 (95% range 1.3–4.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.01.44.5
20272.91.44.5
20282.91.34.5
20292.91.34.5
20302.91.34.5

Killdeer Survey Routes in Pennsylvania

Routes recording Killdeer in Pennsylvania.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Leola1820251998
Doubling Gap1519771966
Greentown1320241969
Akron1119971989
Espyville1020251967
Clover1020251981
Akeley1019791966
Millville1020251969
Mifflintown820251966
Scheafferstn820011967
Berwick820251985
Rector719771966
Ryde720051968
Ephrata719881969
Brunnerville720091969
Aspers719891968
Doylesburg720232009
Jacobus720251986
Ramsey620251968
Canadensis620251986
Portersville619881973
Parkwood620251967
Wakena620231969
Margaret620241969
Williamsburg620251988

Killdeer Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonrhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.