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Species · Pennsylvania · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Killdeer Population Trend in Pennsylvania

All statesShorebirds

Killdeer in Pennsylvania has held roughly steady: down 3% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-3%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
129Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Killdeer Trends in PennsylvaniaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Killdeer in Pennsylvania. See the full index history below.

Killdeer Population Forecast in Pennsylvania

If the recent trend holds, Killdeer in Pennsylvania is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 2.9 (95% range 1.3–4.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±37%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+8%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.9Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.3–4.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±37%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Killdeer in Pennsylvania is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 2.9 (95% range 1.3–4.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±37%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.01.44.6
20263.01.44.6
20273.01.44.6
20283.01.44.6
20292.91.34.5

Killdeer Survey Routes in Pennsylvania

Routes recording Killdeer in Pennsylvania.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Leola1620241998
Williamsburg1520241988
Doubling Gap1519771966
Espyville1320241967
Greentown1320241969
Millville1120241969
Mifflintown1120241966
Akron1119971989
Akeley1019791966
N Washington920241967
Sugar Grove920241980
Harmonsburg820231966
N Pine Grove820241969
Scheafferstn820011967
Rector719771966
Ryde720051968
Ephrata719881969
Brunnerville720091969
Aspers719891968
Doylesburg720232009
Clover620241981
Sigel620241981
Portersville619881973
Wakena620231969
Shelocta620241969

Killdeer Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonrhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.