BirdAnalyst
Species · Maryland · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Killdeer Population Trend in Maryland

All statesShorebirds

Killdeer in Maryland has edged up: up 17% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+17%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
75Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Killdeer Trends in MarylandNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Killdeer in Maryland. See the full index history below.

Killdeer Population Forecast in Maryland

If the recent trend holds, Killdeer in Maryland is projected to rise about 20% by 2030 — from 2.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.4 (95% range 0.15–4.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+20%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.4Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.15–4.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±21.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Killdeer in Maryland is projected to rise about 20% by 2030 — from 2.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.4 (95% range 0.15–4.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.50.214.7
20272.40.194.7
20282.40.184.7
20292.40.164.7
20302.40.154.6

Killdeer Survey Routes in Maryland

Routes recording Killdeer in Maryland.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Fruitland1519981966
Snow Hill919761967
Harmony720171967
Easton720251966
Mardela720191967
Jennings720251995
Furnace Town620252015
Smithsburg520141966
Millington520251966
Cokesbury520251967
Mt Nebo419911969
Williamsport420251966
Wolfsville420251968
Emmitsburg420251967
Olney420251966
Pomfret420221966
Madison420251966
Newark420251969
Steyer420241996
Green Ridge420241996
Walnut420241999
Accident420171992
Upper Xrds320081967
Jones319941966
Tall Timbers320141970

Killdeer Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.