BirdAnalyst
Species · North Dakota · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Killdeer Population Trend in North Dakota

All statesShorebirds

Killdeer in North Dakota has surged: up 77% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+77%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
51Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Killdeer Trends in North DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Killdeer has surged in North Dakota: up 77% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Killdeer Population Forecast in North Dakota

If the recent trend holds, Killdeer in North Dakota is projected to rise about 11% by 2030 — from 17 in 2025 to a central estimate of 19 (95% range 13–25). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+11%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
19Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
13–2595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±18.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Killdeer in North Dakota is projected to rise about 11% by 2030 — from 17 in 2025 to a central estimate of 19 (95% range 13–25). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026191324
2027191324
2028191325
2029191325
2030191325

Killdeer Survey Routes in North Dakota

Routes recording Killdeer in North Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Edgeley5420251980
Forman4820251968
Lakota4520091968
Abercrombie4320121967
Walcott4220231967
Loraine3420191982
Montpelier2920251990
Sydney2819831967
Buchanan2720251967
Parshall2620131982
Kempton2320171967
Gorham2320251968
Danzig 22320252019
Wimbledon2220251981
Cooperstown2020251969
Carpio1820231967
Horsehead Lk1720251980
Wild Rose1720251982
Powers Lake1720251980
Bowman1620251967
Sheyenne Lk1620251980
Solen1620252005
Regan1520251968
Douglas Crk1520251982
Dickinson1420251968

Killdeer Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.