BirdAnalyst
Species · North Dakota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Killdeer Population Trend in North Dakota

All statesShorebirds

Killdeer in North Dakota has risen sharply: up 73% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+73%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
51Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Killdeer Trends in North DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Killdeer has risen sharply in North Dakota: up 73% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Killdeer Population Forecast in North Dakota

If the recent trend holds, Killdeer in North Dakota is projected to rise about 18% by 2029 — from 16 in 2024 to a central estimate of 19 (95% range 13–25). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+18%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
19Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
13–2595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±21.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Killdeer in North Dakota is projected to rise about 18% by 2029 — from 16 in 2024 to a central estimate of 19 (95% range 13–25). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025191325
2026191325
2027191325
2028191325
2029191325

Killdeer Survey Routes in North Dakota

Routes recording Killdeer in North Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Edgeley4520241980
Lakota4520091968
Abercrombie4320121967
Walcott4220231967
Loraine3420191982
Forman3220241968
Danzig 23220242019
Buchanan3020241967
Sydney2819831967
Parshall2620131982
Montpelier2620241990
Kempton2320171967
Solen2320242005
Cooperstown2220241969
Horsehead Lk2220241980
Gorham2120181968
Wild Rose2120241982
Stanley2020241967
Wimbledon1820241981
Carpio1820231967
Sheyenne Lk1720241980
Dickinson1420241968
Powers Lake1420241980
Niles1320241989
Danzig1220141982

Killdeer Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.