BirdAnalyst
Species · Alabama · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Killdeer Population Trend in Alabama

All statesShorebirds

Killdeer in Alabama has held roughly steady: down 2% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-2%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
101Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Killdeer Trends in AlabamaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Killdeer in Alabama. See the full index history below.

Killdeer Population Forecast in Alabama

If the recent trend holds, Killdeer in Alabama is projected to fall about 18% by 2029 — from 2.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.7 (95% range 1.0–2.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-18%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.7Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.0–2.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±20.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Killdeer in Alabama is projected to fall about 18% by 2029 — from 2.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.7 (95% range 1.0–2.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.71.02.4
20261.71.02.4
20271.71.02.4
20281.71.02.4
20291.71.02.3

Killdeer Survey Routes in Alabama

Routes recording Killdeer in Alabama.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Wheeler Dam4620231993
Carter Grove1520232002
Greensport1020241967
Choccolocco920241984
Valhermoso Spgs820101966
Mt Olive820241966
Rock Chapel820241996
Lakeview820241999
Trade720241966
Elkmont720241991
Alabama Pt 2720192004
Stevenson720241998
Hillsboro619961966
Valhermoso Spg 2620142014
Pine Grove520241966
Dawson519981966
Dearmanville519831966
Harrell520211968
Newton520241986
Drummond520242001
Howard420231967
Warrior Std420241966
Fairview420231990
Childersburg419991987
Woodville420241994

Killdeer Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.