BirdAnalyst
Species · New Jersey · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Killdeer Population Trend in New Jersey

All statesShorebirds

Killdeer in New Jersey has risen sharply: up 63% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+63%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
40Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Killdeer Trends in New JerseyNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Killdeer has risen sharply in New Jersey: up 63% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Killdeer Population Forecast in New Jersey

If the recent trend holds, Killdeer in New Jersey is projected to rise about 33% by 2030 — from 0.94 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.3 (95% range 0.00–2.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+33%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.3Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±16.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Killdeer in New Jersey is projected to rise about 33% by 2030 — from 0.94 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.3 (95% range 0.00–2.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.30.002.7
20271.30.002.7
20281.30.002.7
20291.30.002.7
20301.30.002.6

Killdeer Survey Routes in New Jersey

Routes recording Killdeer in New Jersey.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Cape May Ch720111992
Deepwater519771969
Dover520231977
Mt Misery519821976
Albion420221966
Pedricktown420121991
Woodbury Hgt320251970
Hope319941971
Pottersville320211977
Cranbury320221987
Winslow320251989
Ramseysburg320251995
Greenwich220251966
Holmansville220091975
New Bedford220171975
Croton220071970
Gillette220251988
Keyport220151990
Bennett Mill 2220252016
Croton 2220242008
Six Points120231978
Toms River120221975
Ancora119661966
Masonville119701966
Bennett Mill119991972

Killdeer Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.