BirdAnalyst
Species · Texas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Killdeer Population Trend in Texas

All statesShorebirds

Killdeer in Texas has fallen sharply: down 59% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-59%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
242Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Killdeer Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Killdeer has fallen sharply in Texas: down 59% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Killdeer Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Killdeer in Texas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 2.7 (95% range 0.73–4.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±68.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+4%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.7Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.73–4.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±68.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Killdeer in Texas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 2.7 (95% range 0.73–4.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±68.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.00.995.0
20262.90.924.9
20272.90.864.8
20282.80.804.8
20292.70.734.7

Killdeer Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Killdeer in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Waka2820241975
Bayside 22320041997
Rhome2120241967
Claytonville1420221995
Chandler1320041968
Wolfe City1319871969
Panhandle1320241994
E Georgetown1219791968
Twichell1220231996
Thornton 21120101985
Loyola Beach1120091994
Oyster Lake1020241995
Friona1020242001
Gruver1020241994
Mcfaddin1020162006
Stowell920231969
Thornton919831968
Olney920241969
Floydada920241976
Haskell920241995
Wills Point920161994
Saragosa920242022
Gainesville820241967
Raymondville820241969
Manor820242012

Killdeer Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.