BirdAnalyst
Species · Texas · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Killdeer Population Trend in Texas

All statesShorebirds

Killdeer in Texas has fallen sharply: down 54% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-54%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
243Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Killdeer Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Killdeer has fallen sharply in Texas: down 54% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Killdeer Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Killdeer in Texas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 2.6 (95% range 0.65–4.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±70.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+1%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.6Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.65–4.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±70.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Killdeer in Texas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 2.6 (95% range 0.65–4.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±70.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.90.914.9
20272.80.854.8
20282.80.784.7
20292.70.724.7
20302.60.654.6

Killdeer Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Killdeer in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Waka2720251975
Bayside 22320041997
Stowell1920251969
Gruver1820251994
Panhandle1720251994
Claytonville1420221995
Chandler1320041968
Wolfe City1319871969
Booker1320251975
Winnie1220251967
E Georgetown1219791968
Thornton 21120101985
Loyola Beach1120091994
Arenosa Crk1020251968
Gainesville1020251967
Cactus1020251994
Mcfaddin1020162006
Thornton919831968
Weatherford920251968
Rhome920251967
Olney920241969
Wills Point920161994
Beaver Creek920251994
Raymondville820251969
Manor820242012

Killdeer Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.