BirdAnalyst
Species · Indiana · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Killdeer Population Trend in Indiana

All statesShorebirds

Killdeer in Indiana has surged: up 510% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+510%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
68Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Killdeer Trends in IndianaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Killdeer has surged in Indiana: up 510% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Killdeer Population Forecast in Indiana

If the recent trend holds, Killdeer in Indiana is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 23 (95% range 19–27). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.1%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+10%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
23Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
19–2795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±19.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Killdeer in Indiana is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 23 (95% range 19–27). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.1%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026221826
2027221826
2028221826
2029221827
2030231927

Killdeer Survey Routes in Indiana

Routes recording Killdeer in Indiana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
W Lafayette6420251981
Sexton4720241981
Shelbyville4720251983
Cuba4520252017
Decatur4420251999
Newberry4220251999
Montpelier3820242018
Brookville3720251966
Witts Station3520252000
Galveston3320251981
Packertown3220041967
Ellis3220241966
Muncie3119971981
Milroy3120251966
Packertown 23120252005
Fowler2920251966
Thorntown2920251982
Jamestown2920251986
Rensselaer2920251999
Swayzee2720251981
Middlebury2520251989
Brazil2520251966
New Brunswick2520252024
Lagrange2520251999
Berne2320251966

Killdeer Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.