BirdAnalyst
Species · Washington · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Killdeer Population Trend in Washington

All statesShorebirds

Killdeer in Washington has declined: down 39% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-39%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
93Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Killdeer Trends in WashingtonNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Killdeer in Washington. See the full index history below.

Killdeer Population Forecast in Washington

If the recent trend holds, Killdeer in Washington is projected to rise about 12% by 2029 — from 2.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.6 (95% range 0.00–5.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+12%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.6Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–5.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±11.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Killdeer in Washington is projected to rise about 12% by 2029 — from 2.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.6 (95% range 0.00–5.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.90.025.7
20262.80.005.6
20272.70.005.6
20282.70.005.5
20292.60.005.4

Killdeer Survey Routes in Washington

Routes recording Killdeer in Washington.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Wapato3820221971
Scootney Reservoir3520242009
Potholes2620231996
Mesa2220081994
Quincy2120241981
Harwood2019971993
Columbia Nwr1420221992
South Elma1320241975
Warm Beach920171968
Moses Lake920221973
Twisp820241969
Reardan820241968
Othello819911981
Chewelah720211977
Pomona619991998
L Pend O Nwr620231996
Harrington520121972
Everett520241975
Keystone520241994
Raymond520211994
Bay View520171993
Selah520232000
Mercer420221968
Connell420131968
Asotin420241971

Killdeer Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.